Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 4, 2026

FINAL+3CHC

CHC

5-7

MIL

4-7

American Family Fields of Phoenix · Phoenix, Arizona

5,742 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.2%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.9medium
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.5± 3.8medium
Matthew BoydCHC
5.3± 3.5low

Hits

Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.9high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.2± 0.7high
William ContrerasMIL
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Dansby SwansonCHC
2.6± 3.5high
Jackson ChourioMIL
2.1± 1.7high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.3± 2.5high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Carson KellyCHC
0.9± 1.9high

Earned runs

Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.3± 3.2medium
Colin ReaCHC
2.8± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

MIL

.743

OPS

◀

.719

.735

.338

OBP

.319

.338

4.94

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.18

4.25

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.38

1.25

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 4 · MIL 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	4
MIL	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlsonLF	.500	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. AlcantaraDH	.100	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. BallesterosDH	.250	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
C. McCormickLF	.261	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. RojasSS	.318	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. Triantos2B	.261	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
O. Miller2B	.278	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
B. BatemanCF	.385	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Kingery3B	.150	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. HartshornOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. SnellLF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Cowles3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. ArmasC	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. OpitzC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Simas3B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Bowser3B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. KepleyOF	.300	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. HowardSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	6	4	1	2	9

Player

.500

.100

.250

.261

.318

.261

.278

.385

.150

.000

.200

.000

.182

.000

.500

.167

.300

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CabreraSP	2.2	2	0	0	1	2	45
J. KirkpatrickRP	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	8
J. WigginsSP	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	29
V. VelasquezSP	2.0	2	0	0	0	3	29
C. NolandRP	2.0	2	0	0	2	5	47
Team	9.0	7	1	1	4	12	158

Player

2.2

0.1

2.0

2.0

2.0

Team

9.0

158

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. FrelickRF	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Vaughn1B	.353	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. YelichDH	1.000	2	1	2	1	1	1	0
G. SanchezC	.222	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. BaddooLF	.357	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Hamilton3B	.278	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. LaraCF	.286	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. PrattSS	.154	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MadeSS	.222	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. JonesLF	.286	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Jon Adams3B	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Wilken3B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. WoodC	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Adamczewski2B	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. LeonardSS	.556	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. RagsdaleOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. EbelSS	.200	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. DickinsonSS	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	1	7	1	1	4	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. SproatSP	3.0	3	2	2	1	4	47
L. HendersonSP	3.0	2	2	1	0	1	39
S. DrohanRP	3.0	1	0	0	1	4	44
Team	9.0	6	4	3	2	9	130

Team

CHC

MIL

3 sub-models, blended.

MIL vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

MIL vs CHC.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers