Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 2, 2026

FINAL+3PIT

3-7

PIT

9-2

LECOM Park · Bradenton, Florida

4,390 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.2%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 103 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium

Hits

Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Yandy DiazTB
1.4± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.2± 3.7high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
2.6± 2.9medium
Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.0± 3.2high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.9high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.9± 1.4high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.7± 2.8low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.6± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

PIT

.735

OPS

.719

▶

.754

.339

OBP

.319

.336

4.59

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.12

3.78

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.22

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

TB 1 · PIT 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
PIT	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. BarriosSS	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. MeltonLF	.214	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. ViladeRF	.125	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. Palacios2B	.143	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. SimpsonLF	.429	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Davidson1B	.231	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
H. FeducciaC	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Morgan1B	.100	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Taylor3B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Delgado2B	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. Bush Jr.CF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. TooleOF	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. MateoOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. BodineC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. TovarC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. KeeganC	.125	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Polanco2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	4	1	0	4	7

Player

.333

.214

.125

.143

.429

.231

.100

.100

.167

.231

.167

.400

.000

.000

.000

.125

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. EnglertRP	2.0	5	1	0	1	2	45
A. WantzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
T. JohnsonSP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	26
C. BooserRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19
K. WhitleyRP	1.0	3	3	3	0	2	28
D. EdingtonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	8.0	8	4	3	2	9	140

Player

2.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

140

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumLF	.400	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
B. Lowe2B	.375	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.364	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. O'HearnRF	.364	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. OzunaDH	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Horwitz1B	.214	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. DavisC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
En. Valdez1B	.067	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. WilliamsSS	.250	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
W. TaylorCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. White Jr.CF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Johnson2B	.455	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. ValdezRF	.308	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. RossC	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Cimillo1B	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Flores Jr.C	.100	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Y. De Los SantosSS	.500	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. RivasSS	.200	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		32	4	8	3	2	2	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ClevingerRP	3.0	1	0	0	2	3	49
C. MlodzinskiSP	2.1	2	1	1	2	2	47
C. SandersRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
C. DevenskiRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16
Y. RamirezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
E. SiskRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	4	1	1	4	7	143

Team

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs TB.