Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 1, 2026

FINAL

TOR

2-6-2

DET

2-5-3

Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium · Lakeland, Florida

7,818 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.7± 3.5medium

Hits

Kevin McGonigleDET
1.1± 0.7high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.1± 1.1high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.1± 2.5high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.0± 2.2high
Spencer TorkelsonDET
1.6± 1.6high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 0.8high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.6± 1.4high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium
Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

DET

.699

OPS

.718

▶

.709

.310

OBP

.319

▶

.315

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.13

4.12

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.78

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 4 · DET 4 (tied)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	4
DET	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ClaseLF	.300	3	1	3	2	0	0	0
D. VarshoCF	.429	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezRF	.143	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. ValenzuelaC	.300	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
Y. PinangoLF	.077	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. NimmalaSS	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Lantigua2B	.545	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. McAdoo2B	.357	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Keys3B	.188	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Harry2B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
R. BrooksC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. WardRF	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. RiveraSS	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J.R. Freethy2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Mendoza3B	.571	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Coffey3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Tirotta3B	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	9	4	0	1	11

Player

.300

.429

.143

.300

.077

.182

.545

.357

.188

.000

.333

.500

.167

.000

.571

.000

.167

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. RogersRP	3.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
T. NanceRP	1.0	4	2	2	0	1	--
C. LeeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
J. ColemanP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
M. PlassmeyerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
A. AmalfiRP	1.2	3	2	2	1	1	--
H. JuengerSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
Team	9.0	9	4	4	1	8	0

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.2

0.1

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. CarpenterRF	.200	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
G. Torres2B	.286	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
R. GreeneLF	.143	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. Torkelson1B	.250	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. DinglerC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.154	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BaezSS	.444	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. McGonigleSS	.400	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RogersC	.300	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. JulksLF	.500	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. PeckSS	.455	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. SlaterRF	.273	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. ValenciaC	.364	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
W. PerezRF	.091	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Anderson2B	.267	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ClarkCF	.133	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. CruzCF	.364	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. LiranzoC	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	9	4	0	1	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. SkubalSP	3.0	4	2	2	1	1	--
K. JansenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
K. FinneganRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
W. VestRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	--
E. De JesusRP	3.0	2	0	0	0	7	--
Team	9.0	9	4	4	1	11	0

Team

TOR

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs TOR.