Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 22, 2026

FINAL+2SF

CHC

0-3

2-0

Scottsdale Stadium · Scottsdale, Arizona

9,408 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SF win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.9± 1.8medium
Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low
Logan WebbSF
5.5± 1.5low

Hits

Luis ArraezSF
1.4± 0.8high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 2.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.0± 1.8high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.2± 2.5high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Tyler MahleSF
3.4± 3.7low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.3± 3.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

.736

OPS

◀

.718

.725

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.308

4.89

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.06

4.21

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.32

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.36

8.0

K / 9

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

CHC 2 · SF 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2
SF	0	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ShawRF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
A. Bregman3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. SuzukiRF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. AmayaC	.500	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. McCormickLF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CarlsonLF	.667	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
J. DeanCF	.167	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
S. Kingery3B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. Miller2B	.400	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Triantos2B	.200	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
P. Ramirez2B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. BatemanCF	.400	1	0	1	0	0	2	0
K. KepleyOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. ArmasC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. SnellLF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. OpitzC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Alvarez1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RojasSS	.400	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	2	9	1	0	10	3

Player

.500

.000

.500

.500

.200

.667

.167

.000

.400

.200

.250

.400

.000

.250

.000

.000

.000

.400

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ReaSP	1.2	3	1	1	1	2	--
Z. LeighRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
C. ThielbarRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
R. MartinRP	1.2	2	2	2	1	2	--
Y. RojasRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	--
L. RujanoRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	--
Y. RiosRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
Team	8.0	8	4	4	3	6	0

Player

1.2

0.1

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Arraez2B	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Chapman3B	1.000	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
W. AdamesSS	.000	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
R. Devers1B	.000	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
P. BaileyC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. LeeRF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. EldridgeDH	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
W. BrennanLF	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
H. BaderCF	.400	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. McCrayCF	.000	0	2	0	0	0	1	0
C. Koss2B	.333	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. SchmittLF	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. Holton1B	.667	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. HaaseC	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. MatosRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. EncarnacionRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Harber3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. GilbertCF	.333	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	8	4	0	3	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. RaySP	1.0	1	0	0	2	0	--
C. SeymourRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
T. BeckRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
S. BivensRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
R. SanmartinRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
T. HarrisRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	--
W. RamosRP	0.2	1	2	2	3	0	--
H. DrydenSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
W. BednarSP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	--
J. BertrandRP	1.0	0	0	0	3	0	--
Team	9.0	9	2	2	10	3	0

Team

CHC

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SF vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs CHC.