Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 22, 2026

FINAL+4LAD

LAD

2-0

1-2

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

9,769 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.7medium
Roki SasakiLAD
5.4± 3.1low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.3± 2.8medium

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.3± 1.2high
Mookie BettsLAD
1.3± 1.0high
Tommy EdmanLAD
1.2± 1.5low

Total bases

Mookie BettsLAD
2.4± 2.5high
Freddie FreemanLAD
2.0± 1.9high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Mookie BettsLAD
0.8± 1.0high
Ty FranceSD
0.8± 1.8high
Max MuncyLAD
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 2.9low
Emmet SheehanLAD
2.7± 1.8medium
Roki SasakiLAD
2.7± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

.787

OPS

◀

.718

.663

.346

OBP

◀

.319

.298

5.32

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.89

3.44

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.89

1.12

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 5 · SD 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	5
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. RojasSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. TuckerRF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
W. SmithC	.667	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
R. WardLF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Senzel3B	.600	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
J. Tibbs IIIRF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
Z. EhrhardOF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Fitzgerald3B	.400	2	0	0	1	0	1	0
M. SianiCF	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
N. MillerSS	.333	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. NewellCF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Hiura1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. De PaulaRF	.500	1	0	1	1	0	1	0
K. GeorgeCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. ZavalaC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Z. HopeCF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. GauthierSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Nevin3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	5	7	5	0	8	8

Player

.000

.000

.667

.000

.600

.250

.250

.400

.000

.333

.333

.000

.500

.000

.000

.333

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FerrisSP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	--
W. KleinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
C. CamposSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
G. McDanielsRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
P. CopenSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
C. DuranSP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	--
J. RosarioSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
R. KoppRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	0	--
C. SuarezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
Team	9.0	5	1	0	3	7	0

Player

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. BogaertsSS	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MerrillCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Machado3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.500	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. CastellanosRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. CampusanoC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BowenRF	.286	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Dungan2B	.167	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. RodríguezRF	.600	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Song2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. SchnellRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. WagnerDH	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Sanabria1B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. France1B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. DuranC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Solak1B	.600	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	5	0	0	3	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. VasquezSP	2.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
T. McKenzieRP	0.2	2	4	4	2	1	--
M. FlynnRP	0.1	0	0	0	2	0	--
K. HartRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
S. BoyleRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
O. CruzRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
T. AdcockRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	2	--
Team	9.0	7	5	5	8	8	0

Team

LAD

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs LAD.