St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 22, 2026

FINAL+1STL

STL

1-1

HOU

0-2

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

2,598 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.2± 1.1high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Lars NootbaarSTL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.8± 1.8high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high
Cam SmithHOU
1.7± 2.8high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.6± 0.5high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

HOU

.716

OPS

.718

▶

.725

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.315

4.41

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.49

4.25

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.74

1.35

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

7.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 6 · HOU 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	6
HOU	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. Scott IICF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. SaggeseLF	.333	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
J. WalkerRF	.500	2	2	1	0	0	1	0
N. VelazquezLF	.500	2	2	1	0	0	1	0
Y. PozoC	.500	2	0	1	2	0	1	0
C. Prieto3B	.000	3	0	0	2	0	0	0
B. TorresLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Jordan3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. RodriguezC	.500	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. UguetoLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Moore2B	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. LedbetterCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. AnticoCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. PetrutzOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. YerzyC	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Mendoza2B	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. McGee3B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. KrossC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. DavisCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	6	9	5	0	6	6

Player

.000

.333

.500

.500

.500

.000

.000

.000

.500

.000

.250

.000

.000

.000

.500

.250

.500

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LeahySP	2.0	1	1	1	0	3	--
C. RoycroftRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
M. RajcicRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
S. BlewettRP	1.0	2	1	1	2	1	--
G. MorenoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
N. RaquetRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
M. BurnsRP	0.1	0	3	3	3	0	--
D. SaladinSP	0.2	2	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	8	5	5	5	10	0

Player

2.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PenaSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TrammellCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. MeyersCF	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
E. FreyOF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
L. SpenceOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Winkler2B	.500	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. Biggers2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. PriceC	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. JanekC	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. Unroe2B	.667	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
J. WakefieldRF	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. ThomasOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CallUN	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Ferreras2B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
G. RamirezSS	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
Z. DaudetUN	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. GarciaC	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	1
Team		33	5	8	5	1	5	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BurrowsSP	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	--
R. MunozRP	1.0	4	4	2	0	1	--
J. MurrayRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
C. BoltonSP	0.2	0	2	1	4	0	--
A. MaldonadoRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
C. RoaRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
H. LeachRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
A. WillinghamRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	9	6	3	6	6	0

Team

STL

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs STL.