Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 22, 2026

FINAL

BAL

1-1-1

DET

0-1-1

Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium · Lakeland, Florida

6,039 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Jack FlahertyDET
5.7± 3.5medium

Hits

Kevin McGonigleDET
1.1± 0.7high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.0± 1.1high
Taylor WardBAL
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.0± 2.2high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.0high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 0.8high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.7± 2.3low
Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

DET

.714

OPS

.718

.714

.318

OBP

.319

.316

4.54

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.46

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.79

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 4 · DET 4 (tied)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	4
DET	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CowserCF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. Alonso1B	.400	2	1	1	1	1	1	0
H. KjerstadLF	.250	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
C. Mayo3B	.400	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
S. HuffC	.400	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. BasalloC	.250	2	2	1	0	0	1	1
J. Jackson2B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. TrimbleLF	.400	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. BarreroSS	.200	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. Bradfield Jr.CF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. AndersonC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. SosaCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Liranzo3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. WillemsC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. ArdoinC	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Estrada2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. RobertsonLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Eeles2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ButterworthSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	4	9	4	2	3	8

Player

.000

.400

.250

.400

.400

.250

.250

.400

.200

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

1.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BradishSP	2.0	3	2	2	1	2	--
B. YoungSP	2.0	2	1	1	0	2	--
C. FosterRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
A. NunezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
C. WestonRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	4	--
A. MagnoRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	--
Team	9.0	7	4	4	3	10	0

Player

2.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MeadowsCF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. SlaterRF	.333	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. Torkelson1B	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
W. PerezRF	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. Lee2B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Anderson2B	.333	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
T. NidoC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. ClarkCF	.400	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. JulksLF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. McGonigleSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. MeyersOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. JonesDH	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Workman3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Jung3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PeckSS	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. BricenoC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	7	4	1	3	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FlahertySP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	--
S. EffrossRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	--
K. PilkingtonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	--
T. RaineyRP	0.2	1	1	1	2	0	--
Lockhart Jr.RP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
B. SammonsRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	2	--
S. GuentherRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
D. SmithRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
T. MattisonSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
Team	9.0	9	4	4	3	8	0

Team

BAL

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs BAL.