San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 21, 2026

FINAL+7SD

1-1

103

1-1

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

6,431 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.0%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Michael WachaKC
4.9± 2.3medium
Noah CameronKC
4.7± 3.1medium
Michael KingSD
4.6± 2.5medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.4± 1.3high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.7high
Carter JensenKC
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
2.4± 2.9high
Jac CaglianoneKC
2.4± 3.5high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
2.2± 2.6high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.6high
Ty FranceSD
0.8± 1.8high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 2.9low
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Noah CameronKC
2.8± 2.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

.672

OPS

.719

▶

.707

.300

OBP

.319

▶

.315

3.92

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.20

4.16

Team ERA

◀

4.19

4.87

1.33

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 10 · KC 3 (by 7)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	4	10
KC	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. JohnsonRF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. LaureanoLF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. AndujarDH	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
F. FerminC	.333	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
C. RodríguezRF	.667	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
M. McCoy2B	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. Dungan2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
P. ReyesOF	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. TaylorLF	.750	2	2	2	1	0	0	0
J. BowenRF	.333	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
W. WagnerDH	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. SalasC	1.000	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Miranda3B	.833	3	1	3	4	0	1	0
H. VilarC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. SchnellRF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
F. Acuna3B	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Castanon2B	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. Solak1B	.500	2	2	2	1	1	0	0
Team		42	10	18	10	1	6	8

Player

.333

.500

.000

.000

.333

.667

.500

.000

.200

.750

.333

.000

1.000

.833

.000

.000

.250

.500

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WaldronSP	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	24
R. MarinaccioRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
M. MendezSP	1.1	2	2	2	2	2	33
A. JacobRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	16
R. OchRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	19
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
F. PenaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
E. RoutzahnRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	9.0	7	3	3	4	10	137

Player

2.0

1.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

137

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. India2B	.000	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
B. Witt Jr.SS	.400	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. PerezC	.400	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. IsbelCF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. BlancoCF	1.000	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. RaveRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Rojas3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. TreshC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Johnson2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. MisnerCF	.000	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
Kulasingham1B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. MitchellC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RoccaforteCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. GentryRF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. KaiserSS	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. PinedaSS	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. MarreroC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	7	3	0	4	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. BergertSP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	12
M. BlackRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	3	36
E. MorganRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	26
B. KudrnaSP	1.2	6	4	4	2	0	37
A. PérezRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
D. ColleranRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18
J. HeasleyRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	15
O. RayoRP	0.2	4	4	4	2	1	29
C. ChamplainSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	9.0	18	10	10	6	8	177

Team

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs SD.