Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Sep 26, 2026

COL

32-50

PregameSat, 7:10 PM EDT

CHW

42-38

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Davis MartinCHW
6.0± 2.8medium
Sean BurkeCHW
6.0± 1.6medium
David SandlinCHW
5.0± 1.6low

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.4± 0.8high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.2± 0.9high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.3± 2.1high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.1± 1.6high
Kyle TeelCHW
2.0± 3.6low

RBIs

Kyle TeelCHW
1.0± 2.3low
TJ RumfieldCOL
0.8± 0.9high
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.9± 2.8medium
Sean SullivanCOL
3.7± 5.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

CHW

.736

OPS

.718

.740

.324

OBP

.319

.322

4.60

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.83

5.51

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.29

1.52

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.33

7.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

CHW vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league