Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Sep 26, 2026

46-33

PregameSat, 6:05 PM EDT

PHI

46-36

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesTB wins series 2-1

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 102 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.9± 3.6medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 3.4medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Bryce HarperPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.5± 3.4high
Junior CamineroTB
2.5± 3.8high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.4± 4.0high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.1± 2.0high
J.T. RealmutoPHI
0.9± 1.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.9± 2.0high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.0medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
2.2± 2.0medium
Nick MartinezTB
2.0± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

PHI

.725

OPS

◀

.718

.703

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.302

4.52

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.40

3.84

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.05

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.29

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.6

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league