Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Sep 25, 2026

PIT

41-41

PregameFri, 6:40 PM EDT

DET

35-47

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesPIT wins series 3-0

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.8± 2.8medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low

Hits

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.4± 1.0high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.2high
Konnor GriffinPIT
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
2.4± 3.0high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.2± 2.1high
Brandon LowePIT
2.1± 1.6high

RBIs

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
0.9± 1.3high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.9± 2.0high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.4± 2.7medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.6± 3.1low
Framber ValdezDET
2.5± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

DET

.748

OPS

◀

.718

.706

.335

OBP

◀

.319

.314

5.04

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.06

4.10

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.76

1.29

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league