Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Sep 25, 2026

BAL

39-44

PregameFri, 7:05 PM EDT

NYY

48-33

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesNYY win series 2-1

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYY vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.9± 3.3medium
Kyle BradishBAL
6.1± 3.6medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.1± 2.9medium

Hits

Taylor WardBAL
1.2± 0.9high
Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.1± 1.3high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.2± 2.6high
Taylor WardBAL
1.8± 1.9high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.7± 2.1high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 1.1high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.7± 1.1high
Jeremiah JacksonBAL
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 1.9medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

NYY

.722

OPS

.718

▶

.760

.320

OBP

.319

▶

.327

4.64

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.99

4.39

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.32

1.37

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

NYY vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league