Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at BOS?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — May 10, 2026

FINAL+3TB

26-13

BOS

17-23

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

33,489 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

BOS no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.1%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
42.7%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.3%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.5%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.02

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at BOS?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

BOS vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 4.0low
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.7± 3.6low
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.4± 2.0medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 0.9high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.1± 2.4high
Caleb DurbinBOS
2.0± 3.2high
Willson ContrerasBOS
1.9± 3.1high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
0.7± 1.3high
Marcelo MayerBOS
0.6± 1.0high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jake BennettBOS
2.7± 2.0low
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium
Steven MatzTB
2.3± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

BOS

.717

OPS

◀

.719

.692

.334

OBP

◀

.319

.311

4.42

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.92

3.91

Team ERA

4.19

▶

3.85

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.26

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 4 · BOS 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	1	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SimpsonLF	.298	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. Caminero3B	.252	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. Williamson2B	.264	2	1	1	1	0	2	0
Y. DiazDH	.314	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. ViladeRF	.264	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. MullinsCF	.148	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. DeLucaRF	.261	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
N. FortesC	.283	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. WallsSS	.198	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.268	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		30	4	7	3	1	3	5

Player

.298

.252

.264

.314

.264

.148

.261

.283

.198

.268

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. MartinezSP	5.2	7	1	1	0	3	80
K. KellyRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	20
G. CleavingerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	25
B. BakerRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	15
Team	9.0	8	1	1	1	8	140

Player

5.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

140

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DuranLF	.194	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. Contreras1B	.259	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. AbreuRF	.295	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. YoshidaDH	.279	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. StorySS	.200	4	1	1	0	0	0	3
M. GasperC	.750	4	0	3	1	0	0	0
M. Mayer2B	.231	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. RafaelaCF	.277	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Durbin3B	.173	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MonasterioSS	.241	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.205	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	1	8	1	0	1	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. TolleSP	5.0	6	3	1	0	4	81
Z. KellyRP	0.1	1	1	1	1	0	16
T. SamaniegoRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	5
J. SlatenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
G. WeissertRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	10
J. MoranRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	16
Team	9.0	7	4	2	3	5	143

Team

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

BOS vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

BOS vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.