MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TUE, 9:45 PM EDTModelSD54%

20-14

14-21

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.70

W. Buehler

1-2 · 5.40 ERA

L. Webb

2-3 · 4.30 ERA

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Walker Buehler

SP · #10

1-2

W-L

5.40

ERA

1.56

WHIP

25.0

Last 3 starts

vsCHC-4.2 IP2 ER4 K

@COLL(1-2)2.2 IP4 ER2 K

vsSEAW(1-1)5.0 IP2 ER7 K

Home starter

Logan Webb

SP · #62

2-3

W-L

4.30

ERA

1.36

WHIP

44.0

Last 3 starts

@PHI-7.0 IP1 ER6 K

vsLADL(2-3)7.0 IP3 ER5 K

@WSHW(2-2)6.0 IP3 ER6 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 7.5

Money+119 / -143

Model edge

Win prob54% / 46%

LeanAway · 4pp

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesSF leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

+119Bet SD ML↗+119Bet SD ML↗

-143Bet SF ML↗-143Bet SF ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 7.5Bet the total↗O/U 7.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

1.J. MerrillCF
2.M. Machado3B
3.M. AndujarDH
4.G. Sheets1B
5.F. Tatis Jr.RF
6.X. BogaertsSS
7.N. CastellanosLF
8.L. CampusanoC
9.S. Song2B

1.J. LeeRF
2.C. Schmitt2B
3.R. Devers1B
4.H. RamosLF
5.B. EldridgeDH
6.M. Chapman3B
7.W. AdamesSS
8.D. GilbertCF
9.J. RodriguezC

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SF no-vig %

54.2%

open 55.1% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model vs marketLock

DraftKings · snapped just now

+10.1ppon

SDWin prob axisSF

Market 56%

Model 46%

0%50%100%

ModelSD 54%Pre-game prob

MarketSD 44%No-vig · 4.5% hold

Edge+10.1ppModel finds value

SD +119/

SF -143

+119Bet SD ML↗+119Bet SD ML↗

Scouting report · pre-game

SF vs SD.

SF is 4-6 recently; SD is 3-7.

46.2%

model · SF win prob

Recent form

SF4–6-0.9
SD3–7-2.2

Situational

SF2d rest
SD2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. SF has 0 straight road games; SD has 1.

Model angle

+10.1ppon SD

SD's edge is mostly model confidence plus line steam. Venue split is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.5 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.5pp
▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▼Venue split-0.8pp

Players to watch

Casey SchmittSF
2.3total bases · ±1.9
Casey Schmitt · 2.3 TB · last-10 2.5 vs season 2.
Manny MachadoSD
1.9total bases · ±2.8
Manny Machado · 1.9 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 1.4.
Heliot RamosSF
1.8total bases · ±1.6
Heliot Ramos · 1.8 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.6.

Head-to-head · 3-1 · last 4

SF is 3-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-03-31SF @ SD3–2
2026-04-01SF @ SD1–7
2026-04-01SF @ SD9–3
2026-05-04SD @ SF2–3

Line move

open -136→-131toward SD

The market has moved 0.9pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.4%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
46.2%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.5%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.6%
P(SF win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Why we like SD.

SD's edge is mostly model confidence plus line steam. Venue split is the main caution flag.

+10.1

pp edge · SD

+0.87

CLV pp

3.7u · large

on SD

53.7%

±5.1pp band

3.7u large — +8pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+10.0pp

−0.1pp post-cal

Kelly

14.8%

3.7% sized

Decimal

2.19

+8.0pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 10.1pp · SD over SF

▲
Model confidence90% conf
SD clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▼
Venue split64% conf
SF's venue form trims SD's edge by 15.9pp.
-0.8pp
▲
Line steam66% conf
The market moved 0.9pp toward SD since open.
+0.3pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
SF has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.2pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Market came to the model

Player projections

SF vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 53 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
6.1± 1.4low
Robbie RaySF
5.7± 1.9low
Michael KingSD
5.6± 1.7low

Hits

Luis ArraezSF
1.3± 1.2high
Casey SchmittSF
1.2± 0.7high
Heliot RamosSF
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Casey SchmittSF
2.3± 1.9high
Manny MachadoSD
1.9± 2.8high
Luis CampusanoSD
1.8± 3.2medium

RBIs

Casey SchmittSF
0.7± 1.0high
Luis CampusanoSD
0.6± 0.8medium
Manny MachadoSD
0.6± 1.6high

Earned runs

Matt WaldronSD
5.0± 2.3low
Adrian HouserSF
4.0± 3.1low
Logan WebbSF
3.0± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

Tue, May 5

SD★

Padres

20-14

vs54%SD

Giants

14-21

SD 54%win prob46% SF

SD 1521 · SF 1470Box score→

The receipts

Why we like SD.

SD's edge is mostly model confidence plus line steam. Venue split is the main caution flag.

+10.1

pp edge · SD

+0.87

CLV pp

3.7u · large

on SD

53.7%

±5.1pp band

3.7u large — +8pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+10.0pp

−0.1pp post-cal

Kelly

14.8%

3.7% sized

Decimal

2.19

+8.0pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 10.1pp · SD over SF

▲
Model confidence90% conf
SD clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▼
Venue split64% conf
SF's venue form trims SD's edge by 15.9pp.
-0.8pp
▲
Line steam66% conf
The market moved 0.9pp toward SD since open.
+0.3pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
SF has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.2pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Market came to the model

Player projections

SF vs SD.

119

projections · 53 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
6.1± 1.4low
Robbie RaySF
5.7± 1.9low
Michael KingSD
5.6± 1.7low

Hits

Luis ArraezSF
1.3± 1.2high
Casey SchmittSF
1.2± 0.7high
Heliot RamosSF
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Casey SchmittSF
2.3± 1.9high
Manny MachadoSD
1.9± 2.8high
Luis CampusanoSD
1.8± 3.2medium

RBIs

Casey SchmittSF
0.7± 1.0high
Luis CampusanoSD
0.6± 0.8medium
Manny MachadoSD
0.6± 1.6high

Earned runs

Matt WaldronSD
5.0± 2.3low
Adrian HouserSF
4.0± 3.1low
Logan WebbSF
3.0± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

46.4%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
46.2%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.5%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.6%
P(SF win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Scouting report · pre-game

SF vs SD.

SF is 4-6 recently; SD is 3-7.

46.2%

model · SF win prob

Recent form

SF4–6-0.9
SD3–7-2.2

Situational

SF2d rest
SD2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. SF has 0 straight road games; SD has 1.

Model angle

+10.1ppon SD

SD's edge is mostly model confidence plus line steam. Venue split is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.5 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.5pp
▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▼Venue split-0.8pp

Players to watch

Casey SchmittSF
2.3total bases · ±1.9
Casey Schmitt · 2.3 TB · last-10 2.5 vs season 2.
Manny MachadoSD
1.9total bases · ±2.8
Manny Machado · 1.9 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 1.4.
Heliot RamosSF
1.8total bases · ±1.6
Heliot Ramos · 1.8 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.6.

Head-to-head · 3-1 · last 4

SF is 3-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-03-31SF @ SD3–2
2026-04-01SF @ SD1–7
2026-04-01SF @ SD9–3
2026-05-04SD @ SF2–3

Line move

open -136→-131toward SD

The market has moved 0.9pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

MLBTue, May 55/5 - 9:45 PM EDTSeriesSF leads series 1-0VegasSF -143

Preview · MLB

an Diego Padres visit San Francisco Giants Tuesday at 5/5 - 9:45 PM EDT.

Vegas opened SF as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 7.5. SF's moneyline implies a 59% break-even, SD the inverse.

For bettors: the SF side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 7.5 total reads defensive vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

SD · SF

20-14

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
J. Merrill★CF	28-127	16	4	0.535
M. Machado★3B	25-113	18	5	0.575
M. Andujar★3B	25-82	9	2	0.683
G. Sheets★1B	20-93	12	4	0.559
F. Tatis Jr.★RF	31-123	13	0	0.504
X. Bogaerts★SS	32-122	18	5	0.648
N. Castellanos★RF	10-61	9	1	0.377
L. Campusano★C	15-50	10	3	0.780
S. Song★3B	-----	--	--	—
Team	-----	--	--	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
W. Buehler★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

14-21

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
J. Lee★RF	34-125	11	2	0.592
C. Schmitt★1B	33-107	16	5	0.757
R. Devers★1B	29-133	14	2	0.481
H. Ramos★LF	34-126	15	3	0.611
B. Eldridge★1B	0-2	0	0	0.000
M. Chapman★3B	32-130	12	1	0.515
W. Adames★SS	27-137	6	3	0.460
D. Gilbert★CF	13-51	5	2	0.627
J. Rodríguez★C	0-3	0	0	0.000
Team	-----	--	--	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
L. Webb★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

Current series

SF leads series 1-0

May 5

SD2@

SF3

May 6

SD@

SFtoday

May 6

SD@

SFupcoming

Season series

SF leads series 3-1

Mar 31

SF3@

SD2

Apr 1

SF9@

SD3

Apr 1

SF1@

SD7

May 5

SD2@

SF3

May 6

SD@

SFtoday

May 6

SD@

SFupcoming

Jul 31

SF@

SDupcoming

Aug 1

SF@

SDupcoming

Aug 2

SF@

SDupcoming

Aug 2

SF@

SDupcoming

Sep 12

SD@

SFupcoming

Sep 12

SD@

SFupcoming

Sep 13

SD@

SFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SF -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SD+11946%

SF-14359%

5· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SF -1.5↗SpreadBet SF -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

SDSP

W. Buehler

#10 · 1-2

ERA

5.40

—

Last 3 starts

4/29vs

CHC4.2 IP · 2 ER · 4 K-

4/23@

COL2.2 IP · 4 ER · 2 KL(1-2)

4/17vs

SEA5.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 KW(1-1)

SFSP

L. Webb

#62 · 2-3

ERA

4.30

—

Last 3 starts

4/30@

PHI7.0 IP · 1 ER · 6 K-

4/23vs

LAD7.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 KL(2-3)

4/17@

WSH6.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 KW(2-2)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

SD3L · 6R

1
J. Merrill
CF
L
2
M. Machado
3B
R
3
M. Andujar
DH
R
4
G. Sheets
1B
L
5
F. Tatis Jr.
RF
R
6
X. Bogaerts
SS
R
7
N. Castellanos
LF
R
8
L. Campusano
C
R
9
S. Song
2B
L

SF4L · 5R

1
J. Lee
RF
L
2
C. Schmitt
2B
R
3
R. Devers
1B
L
4
H. Ramos
LF
R
5
B. Eldridge
DH
L
6
M. Chapman
3B
R
7
W. Adames
SS
R
8
D. Gilbert
CF
L
9
J. Rodriguez
C
R

Scouting report

SD @ SF

5/5 - 9:45 PM EDT

Rest going in

SDStandard

1 day

last game May 4

SFStandard

1 day

last game May 4

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

SF -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

7.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

SF -143

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

SDmetricSF

20-14

Record

14-21

Conf rank

#13

-0.1

Pt diff

-1.0

Streak

4-6

Last 10

3-7

Bullpen used yesterday

2.3 bullpen IP

K. Hart0.1 IP5 P
B. Rodriguez1.1 IP16 P
W. Peralta0.2 IP13 P

L 3-2 · May 4

2.0 bullpen IP

K. Winn1.0 IP8 P
C. Kilian1.0 IP18 P

W 3-2 · May 4

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

258

Hits

284

Errors

147

Runs

109

Betting line

SF -1.5·O/U 7.5·SD +119/SF -143

DraftKings · via ESPN