MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TUE, 9:40 PM EDT

PIT

19-16

ARI

16-17

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.00

B. Chandler

1-3 · 4.97 ERA

E. Rodriguez

2-0 · 3.03 ERA

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Bubba Chandler

SP · #36

1-3

W-L

4.97

ERA

1.48

WHIP

29.0

Last 3 starts

vsSTLL(1-3)5.0 IP3 ER6 K

@TEXL(1-2)4.0 IP6 ER4 K

vsTBW(1-1)6.0 IP1 ER3 K

Home starter

Eduardo Rodriguez

SP · #57

2-0

W-L

3.03

ERA

1.41

WHIP

32.2

Last 3 starts

@MIL-4.2 IP2 ER4 K

vsCHWW(2-0)5.0 IP4 ER4 K

@BAL-5.0 IP4 ER3 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 9

Money+108 / -130

Model edge

Win prob48% / 52%

LeanTossup

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

No prior meetings logged this season yet.

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

+108Bet PIT ML↗+108Bet PIT ML↗

-130Bet ARI ML↗-130Bet ARI ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 9Bet the total↗O/U 9Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

PIT

1.O. CruzCF
2.N. Gonzales2B
3.B. ReynoldsRF
4.R. O'Hearn1B
5.M. OzunaDH
6.K. GriffinSS
7.J. MangumLF
8.J. BartC
9.J. Triolo3B

ARI

1.G. PerdomoSS
2.K. Marte2B
3.C. CarrollRF
4.A. Del CastilloDH
5.I. Vargas1B
6.L. Gurriel Jr.LF
7.N. Arenado3B
8.G. MorenoC
9.A. ThomasCF

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ARI no-vig %

53.2%

open 52.6% · +0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model vs marketLean

DraftKings · snapped just now

+2.2ppon

PIT

PITWin prob axisARI ARI

Market 54%

Model 52%

0%50%100%

ModelPIT 48%Pre-game prob

MarketPIT 46%No-vig · 4.6% hold

Edge+2.2ppModel finds value

PIT +108/

ARI -130

+108Bet PIT ML↗+108Bet PIT ML↗

Scouting report · pre-game

ARI vs PIT.

ARI has dropped 4 straight; PIT is 4-6 over its last 10.

51.9%

model · ARI win prob

Recent form

ARI3–7-2.2
PIT4–6+0.0

Situational

ARI3d rest
PIT3d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. ARI has 6 straight road games; PIT has 0.

Model angle

+2.2ppon PIT

PIT's edge is mostly recent form plus head to head. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

▼Model confidence-0.8pp
▲Recent form+0.8pp
▲Head to head+0.2pp

Players to watch

Ildemaro VargasARI
2.8total bases · ±3.1
Ildemaro Vargas · 2.8 TB · last-10 2.9 vs season 2.6.
Konnor GriffinPIT
2.1total bases · ±2.6
Konnor Griffin · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.5 vs season 1.5.
Oneil CruzPIT
2.0total bases · ±1.8
Oneil Cruz · 2 TB · last-10 2 vs season 2.1.

Line move

open -122→-126toward ARI

The market has moved 0.8pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.8%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
51.9%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.2%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.4%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Why we like PIT.

PIT's edge is mostly recent form plus head to head. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

+2.2

pp edge · PIT

Pass

48.9%

±5.9pp band

Pass — model probability is at or below the coin flip line.

Edge

+2.9pp

+0.8pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

2.08

+0.8pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 2.2pp · PIT over ARI

▼
Model confidence68% conf
PIT sits near the model-market noise floor.
-0.8pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
PIT is 3-2 over its last 5; ARI is 1-4.
+0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
PIT has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Player projections

ARI vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.7low
Michael SorokaARI
6.0± 4.6low
Carmen MlodzinskiPIT
5.7± 3.5low

Hits

Ildemaro VargasARI
1.6± 1.2high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.4± 1.2high
Konnor GriffinPIT
1.3± 1.3high

Total bases

Ildemaro VargasARI
2.8± 3.1high
Konnor GriffinPIT
2.1± 2.5high
Oneil CruzPIT
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Ildemaro VargasARI
0.9± 1.9high
Oneil CruzPIT
0.9± 0.9high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
5.3± 3.4low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.3± 3.8low
Brandon PfaadtARI
2.7± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

Tue, May 5

PIT

Pirates

19-16

vs52%ARI

ARI★

Diamondbacks

16-17

PIT 48%win prob52% ARI

ARI 1494 · PIT 1505Box score→

Player projections

ARI vs PIT.

126

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.7low
Michael SorokaARI
6.0± 4.6low
Carmen MlodzinskiPIT
5.7± 3.5low

Hits

Ildemaro VargasARI
1.6± 1.2high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.4± 1.2high
Konnor GriffinPIT
1.3± 1.3high

Total bases

Ildemaro VargasARI
2.8± 3.1high
Konnor GriffinPIT
2.1± 2.5high
Oneil CruzPIT
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Ildemaro VargasARI
0.9± 1.9high
Oneil CruzPIT
0.9± 0.9high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
5.3± 3.4low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.3± 3.8low
Brandon PfaadtARI
2.7± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

52.8%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
51.9%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.2%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.4%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Why we like PIT.

PIT's edge is mostly recent form plus head to head. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

+2.2

pp edge · PIT

Pass

48.9%

±5.9pp band

Pass — model probability is at or below the coin flip line.

Edge

+2.9pp

+0.8pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

2.08

+0.8pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 2.2pp · PIT over ARI

▼
Model confidence68% conf
PIT sits near the model-market noise floor.
-0.8pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
PIT is 3-2 over its last 5; ARI is 1-4.
+0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
PIT has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Scouting report · pre-game

ARI vs PIT.

ARI has dropped 4 straight; PIT is 4-6 over its last 10.

51.9%

model · ARI win prob

Recent form

ARI3–7-2.2
PIT4–6+0.0

Situational

ARI3d rest
PIT3d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. ARI has 6 straight road games; PIT has 0.

Model angle

+2.2ppon PIT

PIT's edge is mostly recent form plus head to head. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

▼Model confidence-0.8pp
▲Recent form+0.8pp
▲Head to head+0.2pp

Players to watch

Ildemaro VargasARI
2.8total bases · ±3.1
Ildemaro Vargas · 2.8 TB · last-10 2.9 vs season 2.6.
Konnor GriffinPIT
2.1total bases · ±2.6
Konnor Griffin · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.5 vs season 1.5.
Oneil CruzPIT
2.0total bases · ±1.8
Oneil Cruz · 2 TB · last-10 2 vs season 2.1.

Line move

open -122→-126toward ARI

The market has moved 0.8pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

MLBTue, May 55/5 - 9:40 PM EDTVegasARI -130

Preview · MLB

ittsburgh Pirates visit Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday at 5/5 - 9:40 PM EDT.

Vegas opened ARI as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 9.0. ARI's moneyline implies a 57% break-even, PIT the inverse.

For bettors: the ARI side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 9.0 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

PIT · ARI

PIT

19-16

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
O. Cruz★CF	37-140	28	9	0.721
N. Gonzales★3B	38-116	17	0	0.655
B. Reynolds★LF	32-124	22	4	0.613
R. O'Hearn★RF	37-120	24	5	0.742
M. Ozuna★DH	21-111	13	3	0.459
K. Griffin★SS	27-103	16	2	0.583
J. Mangum★LF	19-70	3	0	0.543
J. Bart★C	9-43	3	1	0.488
J. Triolo★SS	5-24	1	0	0.417
Team	-----	--	--	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
B. Chandler★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

ARI

16-17

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
G. Perdomo★SS	25-102	9	2	0.549
K. Marte★2B	27-126	11	5	0.548
C. Carroll★RF	30-110	18	4	0.655
A. Del Castillo★C	14-63	13	3	0.587
I. Vargas★1B	39-102	21	6	0.941
L. Gurriel Jr.★LF	10-43	4	0	0.465
N. Arenado★3B	30-109	17	5	0.688
G. Moreno★C	12-49	7	1	0.551
A. Thomas★CF	16-87	10	2	0.437
Team	-----	--	--	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
E. Rodriguez★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

Season series

May 6

PIT@

ARItoday

May 7

PIT@

ARIupcoming

May 7

PIT@

ARIupcoming

Jul 27

ARI@

PITupcoming

Jul 28

ARI@

PITupcoming

Jul 29

ARI@

PITupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ARI -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT+10848%

ARI-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

PITSP

B. Chandler

#36 · 1-3

ERA

4.97

—

Last 3 starts

4/29vs

STL5.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 KL(1-3)

4/24@

TEX4.0 IP · 6 ER · 4 KL(1-2)

4/17vs

TB6.0 IP · 1 ER · 3 KW(1-1)

ARISP

E. Rodriguez

#57 · 2-0

ERA

3.03

—

Last 3 starts

4/29@

MIL4.2 IP · 2 ER · 4 K-

4/23vs

CHW5.0 IP · 4 ER · 4 KW(2-0)

4/15@

BAL5.0 IP · 4 ER · 3 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

PIT2L · 5R · 2S

1
O. Cruz
CF
L
2
N. Gonzales
2B
R
3
B. Reynolds
RF
B
4
R. O'Hearn
1B
L
5
M. Ozuna
DH
R
6
K. Griffin
SS
R
7
J. Mangum
LF
B
8
J. Bart
C
R
9
J. Triolo
3B
R

ARI3L · 3R · 3S

1
G. Perdomo
SS
B
2
K. Marte
2B
B
3
C. Carroll
RF
L
4
A. Del Castillo
DH
L
5
I. Vargas
1B
B
6
L. Gurriel Jr.
LF
R
7
N. Arenado
3B
R
8
G. Moreno
C
R
9
A. Thomas
CF
L

Scouting report

PIT @ ARI

5/5 - 9:40 PM EDT

StorylinePIT riding a 3-game win streak · ARI lost 4 in a row.

Rest going in

PITStandard

2 days

last game May 3

ARIStandard

2 days

last game May 3

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

ARI -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

9.0

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

ARI -130

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

PITmetricARI

19-16

Record

16-17

Conf rank

+0.8

Pt diff

-1.0

Streak

5-5

Last 10

3-7

Bullpen used yesterday

PIT

1.3 bullpen IP

G. Soto1.1 IP17 P

W 1-0 · May 3

ARI

3.7 bullpen IP · heavy

R. Thompson0.2 IP4 P
B. Pfaadt2.1 IP52 P
P. Sewald0.2 IP8 P

L 8-4 · May 3

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

307

Hits

272

Errors

180

Runs

150

Betting line

ARI -1.5·O/U 9·PIT +108/ARI -130

DraftKings · via ESPN