Matchup orbital

9
ATL
ATL
16-7
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME

4
WSH
WSH
10-13
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
ATL wins
ATL 9 · WSH 4 (by 5)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked ATL +8pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
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ATL16-7
ATL
10-13WSH
WSH

Recap · MLB
tlanta Braves went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 9–4.
ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 5.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page


Current series
ATL wins series 3-1
ATL9@
WSH4today
ATL4@
WSH11
ATL8@
WSH6
ATL7@
WSH2Season series
ATL leads series 1-0
ATL9@
WSH4today
ATL4@
WSH11
ATL8@
WSH6
ATL7@
WSH2
WSH@
ATLupcoming
WSH@
ATLupcoming
WSH@
ATLupcoming
WSH@
ATLupcoming
WSH@
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ATLupcoming
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ATLupcoming
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WSHupcoming
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WSHupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ATL -1.5
Total
8.0
Defensive · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
ATL-15661%
WSH+12944%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 3 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 6th Inning
ATL
M. Olson
1BBatter of the game
1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

B. Elder
SPStarting pitcher
6.2 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 2 BB
WSH
D. Lile
LFBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

J. Irvin
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 3 H
How it ended
ATL beat WSH 9-4. Baldwin's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
WSH vs ATL
Score progression
1 lead change
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactYoung · singled to right, Abrams scored and House scored, Lile to third.
Olson · homered to center (419 feet), Baldwin scored.
Baldwin · doubled to left, Acuña Jr. scored and Yastrzemski scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Period scoring
ATL won 3 · WSH won 1
Inn 1
Young 2
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Olson 2
Lile 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Baldwin 2
Young 1
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
White 1
Game flow · key plays
Harris II singled to center, Riley scored, Albies to third.
ATL 6·WSH 3
−8pp
Baldwin doubled to left, Acuña Jr. scored and Yastrzemski scored.
ATL 4·WSH 3
−23pp
Yastrzemski safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Nuñez, Yastrzemski safe at second on error.
ATL 2·WSH 3
−10pp
Lile homered to right (376 feet).
ATL 2·WSH 3
+13pp
Olson homered to center (419 feet), Baldwin scored.
ATL 2·WSH 2
−21pp
Young singled to right, Abrams scored and House scored, Lile to third.
ATL 0·WSH 2
+18pp
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
7
Hits
3
1
Errors
3
9
Runs
4
Player box score

ATL
16-7

R. Acuna Jr.★
RF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0

D. Baldwin★
C
OPS
1.100
H-AB
2-4
R
2
RBI
2
HR
0

M. Olson★
1B
OPS
1.250
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
3
HR
1

A. Riley★
3B
OPS
0.200
H-AB
0-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0

O. Albies★
2B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0

M. Harris II★
CF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0

D. Smith★
1B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0

J. Mateo★
SS
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0

M. Yastrzemski★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
2
RBI
0
HR
0

E. White
CF
OPS
1.000
H-AB
1-2
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
H-AB
7-34
R
9
RBI
9
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() R. Acuna Jr.★RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() D. Baldwin★C | 2-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.100 |
![]() M. Olson★1B | 1-4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1.250 |
![]() A. Riley★3B | 0-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 |
![]() O. Albies★2B | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() M. Harris II★CF | 1-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() D. Smith★1B | 1-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() J. Mateo★SS | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
![]() M. Yastrzemski★LF | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() E. WhiteCF | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Team | 7-34 | 9 | 9 | 1 | — |

B. Elder★
SP
IP
6.2
H
3
ER
3
K
6

A. Bummer
RP
IP
0.1
H
0
ER
0
K
0

T. Kinley
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
2

J. Payamps
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
1
IP
9.0
H
3
ER
3
K
9
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() B. Elder★SP | 6.2 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
![]() A. BummerRP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
![]() T. KinleyRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
![]() J. PayampsRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 3 | 3 | 9 |

WSH
10-13

J. Wood★
RF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

L. Garcia Jr.★
1B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

B. House★
3B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0

C. Abrams★
SS
OPS
0.333
H-AB
0-2
R
2
RBI
0
HR
0

D. Lile★
LF
OPS
1.833
H-AB
1-3
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1

J. Young★
CF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
2
HR
0

J. Tena★
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

D. Millas★
C
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0

N. Nunez★
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
3-31
R
4
RBI
3
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() J. Wood★RF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() L. Garcia Jr.★1B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() B. House★3B | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() C. Abrams★SS | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
![]() D. Lile★LF | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.833 |
![]() J. Young★CF | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 |
![]() J. Tena★2B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() D. Millas★C | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
![]() N. Nunez★2B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 3-31 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — |

J. Irvin★
SP
IP
5.0
H
3
ER
3
K
4

P. Poulin
RP
IP
0.1
H
1
ER
2
K
0

B. Lord
RP
IP
2.2
H
2
ER
1
K
1

J. Fernandez
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
1
IP
9.0
H
7
ER
6
K
6
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() J. Irvin★SP | 5.0 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
![]() P. PoulinRP | 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
![]() B. LordRP | 2.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
![]() J. FernandezRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
Betting line
ATL -1.5·O/U 8·ATL -156/WSH +129