Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 20, 2026

FINAL+5ATL

ATL

16-7

WSH

10-13

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

12,022 attended

Line movement

24 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

WSH no-vig %

41.7%

open 41.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.8%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
42.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
40.2%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.8%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.0low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.8± 2.3medium
Cade CavalliWSH
5.3± 3.6medium

Hits

Nasim NunezWSH
1.2± 0.7high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.1± 0.7high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

CJ AbramsWSH
2.1± 2.0high
James WoodWSH
2.1± 2.3high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

Dylan CrewsWSH
0.8± 0.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 0.7high
Curtis MeadWSH
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
2.8± 2.9medium
JR RitchieATL
2.6± 2.6low
Miles MikolasWSH
2.5± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

WSH

.734

OPS

.718

▶

.744

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.321

4.90

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.35

3.38

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.61

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 9 · WSH 4 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	2	0	5	0	0	2	9
WSH	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.244	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
D. BaldwinC	.313	4	2	2	2	0	1	0
M. Olson1B	.278	4	1	1	3	1	0	0
A. Riley3B	.239	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
O. Albies2B	.281	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
M. Harris IICF	.288	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. SmithDH	.345	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. MateoSS	.318	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. YastrzemskiLF	.203	4	2	0	0	0	0	1
E. WhiteRF	.182	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
Team		34	9	7	9	1	3	6

Player

.244

.313

.278

.239

.281

.288

.345

.318

.203

.182

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ElderSP	6.2	3	4	3	2	6	98
A. BummerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. KinleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
J. PayampsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	3	4	3	2	9	126

Player

6.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.237	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.208	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. House3B	.235	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
C. AbramsSS	.312	2	2	0	0	0	1	1
D. LileLF	.284	3	1	1	1	1	1	0
J. YoungCF	.254	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
J. TenaDH	.324	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MillasC	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Nunez2B	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	3	3	1	2	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. IrvinSP	5.0	3	4	3	0	4	68
P. PoulinRP	0.1	1	2	2	1	0	11
B. LordRP	2.2	2	1	1	0	1	37
J. FernandezRP	1.0	1	2	0	2	1	29
Team	9.0	7	9	6	3	6	145

Team

ATL

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.