Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at LAA?

The model favors LAA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 5, 2026

FINAL+1LAA

SEA

4-6

LAA

5-5

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

27,712 attended

Line movement

15 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

LAA no-vig %

40.0%

open 40.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.2%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
43.1%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.6%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.6%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+139

Close price

+139

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at LAA?: The model favors LAA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

LAA vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 3.8medium
Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.4± 2.4medium

Hits

Donovan WaltonLAA
1.4± 1.0high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
1.1± 1.2high
Jo AdellLAA
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Donovan WaltonLAA
2.4± 1.7high
Zach NetoLAA
2.3± 2.4high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.8± 2.5low

RBIs

Donovan WaltonLAA
0.8± 1.1high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
0.7± 1.4low
Jorge SolerLAA
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Ryan JohnsonLAA
3.2± 3.6low
Bryan WooSEA
2.8± 3.2medium
George KirbySEA
2.8± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

LAA

.695

OPS

.718

▶

.717

.311

OBP

.319

▶

.319

4.02

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.54

3.68

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.66

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.41

8.9

K / 9

8.5

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

SEA 7 · LAA 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
SEA	0	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	7
LAA	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. RaleyRF	.214	5	0	1	0	0	0	4
C. RaleighC	.132	5	1	1	0	0	1	3
J. RodriguezCF	.154	5	1	1	1	0	0	2
J. Naylor1B	.125	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.294	2	2	1	1	0	2	0
J.P. CrawfordSS	.100	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
C. Young2B	.278	4	2	1	3	1	1	0
M. GarverC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
L. Rivas3B	.161	3	0	1	2	0	2	1
D. CanzoneDH	.263	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. SpeierRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	7	7	7	1	8	15

Player

.214

.132

.154

.125

.294

.100

.278

.000

.161

.263

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CastilloSP	3.2	6	4	3	1	4	84
J. FerrerRP	1.0	4	2	2	0	1	19
C. WilcoxRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	23
C. LeguminaRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	0	26
A. MunozRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
M. BrashRP	1.0	0	1	0	0	1	10
G. SpeierRP	0.2	0	1	0	1	0	3
Team	10.2	11	8	5	3	9	181

Player

3.2

1.0

1.1

2.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

Team

10.2

181

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.231	5	1	1	1	0	1	2
M. TroutCF	.212	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
N. Schanuel1B	.243	5	0	1	2	0	0	0
J. SolerDH	.189	4	0	2	2	0	1	1
J. Candelario3B	.154	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. AdellRF	.237	5	2	1	1	0	0	2
J. LoweLF	.103	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
L. O'HoppeC	.231	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
A. Frazier2B	.429	4	1	3	1	0	0	1
O. Peraza2B	.259	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. TeodosioLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	8	11	8	0	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. KlassenSP	2.2	3	2	2	5	4	73
R. ZeferjahnRP	2.0	0	2	2	1	5	27
B. SuterRP	2.1	1	1	1	1	3	39
S. BachmanRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	2	28
S. AndersonRP	2.0	1	1	0	1	1	27
Team	11.0	7	7	6	8	15	194

Team

SEA

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

LAA vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.