Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 3, 2026

FINAL

MIL

50-29

34-49

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

Line movement

10 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

KC no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.3%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
47.0%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.9%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.6%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.9medium
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.6± 5.0low
Robert GasserMIL
5.2± 2.2low

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.4± 1.1high
William ContrerasMIL
1.3± 1.4high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Carter JensenKC
2.2± 2.5high
William ContrerasMIL
2.0± 2.7high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Josh RojasKC
0.7± 1.1low
William ContrerasMIL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Mitch SpenceKC
7.3± 3.1low
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Brandon SproatMIL
2.7± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

.732

OPS

◀

.718

.710

.338

OBP

◀

.319

.317

5.23

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.23

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.87

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 0 · KC 0 (tied)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant