Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATH at TOR?

The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 28, 2026

FINAL+1TOR

ATH

0-2

TOR

2-0

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

40,268 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TOR no-vig %

63.6%

open 63.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
61.5%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.5%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.7%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.35 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+163

Close price

+163

Open no-vig

36.4%

Close no-vig

36.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATH at TOR?: The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

TOR vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Gage JumpATH
5.8± 2.8low
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.4± 2.1medium

Hits

Ernie ClementTOR
1.1± 1.1high
Alika WilliamsATH
1.0± 1.0high
Henry BolteATH
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.2± 2.4high
Alika WilliamsATH
1.7± 1.9high
Jonah HeimATH
1.6± 1.6high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Nick KurtzATH
0.7± 1.1high
Jacob WilsonATH
0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.5± 2.0medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Aaron CivaleATH
2.9± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

TOR

.736

OPS

◀

.718

.701

.327

OBP

◀

.319

.310

4.61

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.08

4.93

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.16

1.43

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.33

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

ATH 7 · TOR 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
ATH	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	1	0	7
TOR	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	2	1	1	1	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Kurtz1B	.000	2	3	0	0	0	3	2
S. LangeliersC	.625	4	1	2	4	1	1	1
T. SoderstromLF	.250	5	0	2	1	0	0	2
B. RookerDH	.111	5	0	1	1	0	0	3
J. WilsonSS	.000	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. McNeil2B	.143	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. Muncy3B	.125	5	1	1	0	0	0	3
C. CortesRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. ClarkeCF	.143	5	1	1	1	0	0	3
D. HernaizSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Ibanez2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		40	7	8	7	1	5	19

Player

.000

.625

.250

.111

.000

.143

.125

.000

.143

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SpringsSP	5.1	5	2	2	3	2	83
M. Leiter Jr.RP	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	17
E. AlvaradoRP	1.0	1	2	2	2	2	26
H. HarrisRP	0.2	2	0	0	1	0	19
M. KellyRP	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	15
S. BarlowRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	1	14
L. MedinaRP	0.1	1	1	0	1	1	10
Team	10.1	14	8	6	8	7	184

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

0.2

1.1

1.0

0.1

Team

10.1

184

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.100	6	0	1	1	0	0	3
D. SchneiderLF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.333	3	1	1	1	0	3	0
K. Okamoto3B	.375	5	0	1	0	0	1	2
A. KirkC	.111	5	2	1	1	1	1	1
D. VarshoCF	.250	4	1	2	1	0	2	0
E. Clement2B	.400	6	0	2	1	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.750	5	0	4	1	0	0	0
A. BargerRF	.000	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
N. LukesRF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezRF	.500	2	2	1	1	0	0	0
Team		42	8	14	8	1	8	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CeaseSP	5.1	3	1	1	2	12	90
B. FisherRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	4
M. FluhartyRP	0.0	2	2	2	0	0	9
B. LittleRP	0.2	2	3	3	1	2	23
T. NanceRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	11
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	7
L. VarlandRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	1	14
S. MilesRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
Team	11.0	8	7	6	5	19	174

Team

ATH

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

TOR vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.