Cross-sport·CLV receipts
Closing-line value is the metric that survives short-term variance. Positive CLV over a meaningful sample is the strongest signal a model has real edge. Every settled pick below, scored against the closing line, downloadable as CSV.
Picks scored
0
of 0 graded
Avg CLV
0
bps · model vs close
Median CLV
0
bps
Positive %
—
0 wins · 0 losses
CLV distribution
Distribution of closing-line value across all scored picks. Bins in basis points (1 bp = 0.01% probability points).
Per league
Average CLV across each league's scored picks over the last 7 days.
| League | Picks | Avg CLV | Median | +% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mlb | 0 | — | — | — |
| nba | 0 | — | — | — |
| wnba | 0 | — | — | — |
| nhl | 0 | — | — | — |
| nfl | 0 | — | — | — |
Public receipts
Every settled pick · model line · market line · closing line · CLV bps. No filters, no edits. Open file, audit the math yourself.
Methodology
At pick issue time (T-30min before tip), the model writes a row to picks_log with the model's projected probability and the market line + price at that moment.
At T-5min before tip, a cron snapshots the closing line into closing_lines.
When the game settles, a grader computes CLV bps = (model_prob − no_vig_closing_prob) × 10,000. Positive CLV means the model identified the side that the market eventually confirmed by close — a leading indicator of true edge.
Picks that lack a closing line are excluded from CLV math (shown as "—" in tables). Sample sizes below 30 in any cohort should be read with skepticism — CLV is a survival statistic, not a single-game one.
Full methodology + open-source backtest notebooks live at /model/methodology.
We publish this number even when it's negative — that's the point. Get the graded record in your inbox: last night's wins and losses, tonight's slate.