Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury
LV
13-5
PHX
6-13
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
as Vegas Aces visit Phoenix Mercury Thursday at 9/24 - 10:00 PM EDT. LV is rolling — 7-2 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
49
FG %
44
Season series
Series tied 1-1
PHX99@LV66LV86@PHX76PHX@LVupcomingLV@PHXtodayScouting report
LV @ PHX
Tale of the tape
13-5
Record
6-13
#2
Conf rank
#7
+4.1
Pt diff
-3.5
W1
Streak
W1
8-2
Last 10
4-6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
54.9%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 45 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV25.7± 7.7medium
- Kahleah CopperPHX20.0± 9.2high
- Jackie YoungLV17.9± 6.3high
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV9.4± 3.8medium
- Natasha MackPHX8.3± 3.0high
- NaLyssa SmithLV6.4± 3.1high
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.5± 2.3high
- Chelsea GrayLV7.6± 2.2high
- Jackie YoungLV6.9± 2.1high
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.8± 2.0medium
- Natasha MackPHX1.1± 1.1high
- DeWanna BonnerPHX0.8± 0.9high
Steals
- A'ja WilsonLV1.6± 1.9medium
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX1.6± 1.0low
- Chelsea GrayLV1.3± 0.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
PHX
49.0%
FG%
44.9
43.5%
36.3%
3PT %
33.4
31.8%
89.8
PPG
86.3
83.7
23.1
Assists / G
18.0
19.4
12.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
13.2