Golden State Valkyries at Los Angeles Sparks
GS
12-7
LA
8-9
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
olden State Valkyries visit Los Angeles Sparks Thursday at 9/24 - 10:00 PM EDT. GS is 6-3 in their last 9. LA is 4-3 in their last 7.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
LA
Home
41
FG %
46
Season series
GS leads series 1-0
LA58@GS78GS@LAupcomingGS@LAtodayScouting report
GS @ LA
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
GS -15.5
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
GS
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
12-7
Record
8-9
#3
Conf rank
#5
+4.7
Pt diff
-4.4
W2
Streak
L1
6-4
Last 10
4-6
63.7
Power score
48.2
#5
Power rank
#9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
54.9%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 20 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA23.3± 15.0low
- Gabby WilliamsGS17.4± 8.2medium
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.1± 6.6medium
Rebounds
- Nneka OgwumikeLA9.0± 4.9medium
- Dearica HambyLA8.0± 2.5medium
- Kayla ThorntonGS5.2± 2.8high
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA6.6± 3.5low
- Veronica BurtonGS4.8± 2.5high
- Erica WheelerLA4.4± 2.1medium
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.9± 2.1high
- Cameron BrinkLA1.5± 0.8medium
- Rae BurrellLA0.9± 1.4medium
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.5medium
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.5± 0.6medium
- Veronica BurtonGS1.4± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
LA
40.9%
FG%
44.9
▶45.9%
35.8%
3PT %
33.4
31.2%
83.4
PPG
86.3
▶88.9
18.4
Assists / G
18.0
▶20.2
10.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.2