Chicago Sky at Washington Mystics
CHI
6-12
WSH
8-9
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
hicago Sky visit Washington Mystics Thursday at 9/24 - 7:30 PM EDT. WSH is 4-5 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
42
FG %
45
Season series
WSH leads series 1-0
CHI72@WSH90WSH@CHIupcomingCHI@WSHtodayScouting report
CHI @ WSH
Tale of the tape
6-12
Record
8-9
#6
Conf rank
#5
-2.9
Pt diff
-3.6
W2
Streak
L2
3-7
Last 10
5-5
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
54.9%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 10 high confidence
Points
- Sonia CitronWSH17.7± 6.7medium
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Kiki IriafenWSH14.3± 6.7medium
Rebounds
- Shakira AustinWSH9.1± 3.7medium
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.1± 4.5medium
- Kamilla CardosoCHI7.9± 3.8high
Assists
- Skylar DigginsCHI4.7± 3.1medium
- Georgia AmooreWSH4.0± 2.9medium
- Sonia CitronWSH4.0± 2.6medium
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.9± 1.7high
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.2± 1.1medium
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
Steals
- Sonia CitronWSH1.2± 1.7medium
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.1± 1.2low
- Skylar DigginsCHI1.0± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
WSH
42.0%
FG%
44.9
▶44.9%
30.4%
3PT %
33.4
30.0%
83.5
PPG
86.3
81.9
19.4
Assists / G
18.0
18.8
12.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
15.8