Golden State Valkyries at Portland Fire
GS
11-7
POR
8-11
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
olden State Valkyries visit Portland Fire Tuesday at 9/22 - 10:00 PM EDT. GS is 6-3 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
POR
Home
41
FG %
44
Season series
GS leads series 1-0
POR77@GS95GS@PORupcomingPOR@GSupcomingGS@PORtodayScouting report
GS @ POR
Tale of the tape
12-7
Record
8-11
#3
Conf rank
#6
+4.7
Pt diff
-8.0
W2
Streak
L2
6-4
Last 10
3-7
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
POR vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 40 high confidence
Points
- Gabby WilliamsGS17.4± 8.2medium
- Carla LeitePOR13.4± 5.5medium
- Bridget CarletonPOR12.9± 8.1medium
Rebounds
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.5± 2.3high
- Kayla ThorntonGS5.2± 2.8high
- Kiah StokesGS4.8± 1.5high
Assists
- Carla LeitePOR6.1± 3.4medium
- Veronica BurtonGS4.8± 2.5high
- Teja OblakPOR2.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.9± 2.1high
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.7± 0.8high
- Laeticia AmihereGS0.8± 1.1medium
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.5± 0.6medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.5± 1.1high
- Veronica BurtonGS1.4± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
POR
40.9%
FG%
44.9
▶44.2%
35.8%
3PT %
33.4
34.4%
83.4
PPG
86.3
82.0
18.4
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.8
10.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.6