Los Angeles Sparks at Las Vegas Aces
LA
8-9
LV
13-5
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks visit Las Vegas Aces Tuesday at 9/22 - 10:00 PM EDT. LA is 4-3 in their last 7. LV is rolling — 7-2 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
LV
Home
46
FG %
49
Season series
LV leads series 2-1
LV105@LA78LA101@LV95LV79@LA69LA@LVtodayScouting report
LA @ LV
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
LV -24.0
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
LV
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
8-9
Record
13-5
#5
Conf rank
#2
-4.4
Pt diff
+4.1
L1
Streak
W1
4-6
Last 10
8-2
48.2
Power score
72.1
#9
Power rank
#2
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LV vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 20 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV25.7± 7.7medium
- Kelsey PlumLA23.3± 15.0low
- Jackie YoungLV17.9± 6.3high
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV9.4± 3.8medium
- Nneka OgwumikeLA9.0± 4.9medium
- Dearica HambyLA8.0± 2.5medium
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV7.6± 2.2high
- Jackie YoungLV6.9± 2.1high
- Kelsey PlumLA6.6± 3.5low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.8± 2.0medium
- Cameron BrinkLA1.5± 0.8medium
- Rae BurrellLA0.9± 1.4medium
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.5medium
- A'ja WilsonLV1.6± 1.9medium
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
LV
45.9%
FG%
44.9
▶49.0%
31.2%
3PT %
33.4
▶36.3%
88.9
PPG
86.3
89.8
20.2
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.1
14.2
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.4