Minnesota Lynx at Indiana Fever
MIN
14-4
IND
10-8
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
innesota Lynx visit Indiana Fever Tuesday at 9/22 - 8:00 PM EDT. MIN is rolling — 6-2 in their last 8. IND is 5-4 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
IND
Home
49
FG %
47
Season series
Series starts 8/2
IND@MINupcomingMIN@INDtodayIND@MINupcomingScouting report
MIN @ IND
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
MIN -24.6
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
MIN
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
14-4
Record
10-8
#1
Conf rank
#3
+11.4
Pt diff
+2.8
W1
Streak
L1
8-2
Last 10
6-4
80.5
Power score
55.9
#1
Power rank
#6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 55 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey MitchellIND21.4± 4.9high
- Caitlin ClarkIND21.1± 6.1high
- Olivia MilesMIN19.7± 7.5high
Rebounds
- Aliyah BostonIND9.0± 1.7medium
- Natasha HowardMIN7.6± 3.9medium
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.9± 1.6high
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.9± 2.6high
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.3high
- Courtney WilliamsMIN3.9± 1.6high
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.6± 1.3high
- Aliyah BostonIND1.4± 1.4medium
- Olivia MilesMIN0.9± 1.3high
Steals
- Natasha HowardMIN2.1± 1.9medium
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.4± 1.1medium
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.4± 1.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
IND
49.4%
FG%
44.9
46.8%
38.1%
3PT %
33.4
35.2%
90.8
PPG
86.3
▶93.0
21.4
Assists / G
18.0
21.1
13.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
15.4