Dallas Wings at Phoenix Mercury
DAL
11-7
PHX
6-13
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
allas Wings visit Phoenix Mercury Monday at 9/21 - 10:00 PM EDT. DAL is 5-4 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
46
FG %
44
Season series
DAL leads series 1-0
PHX70@DAL85PHX@DALupcomingDAL@PHXtodayScouting report
DAL @ PHX
Tale of the tape
11-7
Record
6-13
#4
Conf rank
#7
+3.4
Pt diff
-3.5
L1
Streak
W1
6-4
Last 10
4-6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 35 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX20.0± 9.2high
- Paige BueckersDAL19.5± 8.0medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL15.2± 5.2medium
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL11.1± 3.4medium
- Natasha MackPHX8.3± 3.0high
- Alyssa ThomasPHX5.9± 2.5high
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.5± 2.3high
- Paige BueckersDAL6.5± 3.5medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL4.9± 3.0medium
Blocks
- Awak KuierDAL1.2± 0.9medium
- Natasha MackPHX1.1± 1.1high
- Azzi FuddDAL1.0± 1.7medium
Steals
- Azzi FuddDAL1.8± 1.7medium
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX1.6± 1.0low
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.3± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
PHX
46.4%
FG%
44.9
43.5%
33.3%
3PT %
33.4
31.8%
89.1
PPG
86.3
83.7
22.8
Assists / G
18.0
19.4
10.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
13.2