Atlanta Dream at New York Liberty
ATL
12-5
NY
12-7
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
tlanta Dream visit New York Liberty Monday at 9/21 - 8:00 PM EDT. ATL is rolling — 6-2 in their last 8. NY is 6-3 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
NY
Home
44
FG %
46
Season series
NY leads series 1-0
NY104@ATL90ATL@NYtodayATL@NYupcomingScouting report
ATL @ NY
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
ATL -9.3
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
ATL
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
12-5
Record
12-7
#1
Conf rank
#2
+6.1
Pt diff
+5.0
L1
Streak
L1
7-3
Last 10
7-3
76.7
Power score
67.4
#2
Power rank
#4
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 30 high confidence
Points
- Rhyne HowardATL18.9± 8.9medium
- Breanna StewartNY18.8± 6.2high
- Allisha GrayATL17.5± 6.6medium
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL11.8± 4.1medium
- Jonquel JonesNY8.8± 3.6high
- Breanna StewartNY8.7± 2.0high
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL7.2± 3.9medium
- Pauline AstierNY3.9± 1.6high
- Sabrina IonescuNY3.4± 2.4low
Blocks
- Breanna StewartNY1.4± 2.2high
- Jonquel JonesNY1.3± 0.8high
- Rhyne HowardATL0.8± 1.1medium
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.5± 2.0medium
- Jordin CanadaATL2.0± 1.7medium
- Allisha GrayATL1.8± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
NY
44.3%
FG%
44.9
▶46.2%
33.3%
3PT %
33.4
▶34.8%
89.0
PPG
86.3
88.9
20.2
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.0
12.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.4