Recent form
9-1
MIN +9.4 vs GS +5.6 margin
MIN brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Golden State Valkyries at Minnesota Lynx
GS
GS
25-11
PregameMon, 8:00 PM EDTUSA Net
MIN
MIN
31-7
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
olden State Valkyries visit Minnesota Lynx Monday at 8/24 - 8:00 PM EDT. GS is rolling — 5-2 in their last 7. MIN arrives on a 6-game win streak (6-1 in their last 7).
Vegas opened MIN as a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 159.5. MIN's moneyline implies a 70% break-even, GS the inverse.
For bettors: the MIN side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 159.5 total reads defensive vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
42
FG %
49
Season series
MIN leads series 3-0
Jun 5GS84@MIN87
GS84@MIN87Jun 20MIN81@GS75
MIN81@GS75Aug 20MIN77@GS66
MIN77@GS66Aug 25GS@MINtoday
GS@MINtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
159.5
Defensive · -5.5 vs avg
Moneyline
GS+19034%MIN-23070%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
0.0 since open
Total
159.5
-3.0 since open
Scouting report
GS @ MIN
StorylineMIN on a 6-game roll.
Rest going in
GSLong rest
3 days
last game Aug 21
MINLong rest
3 days
last game Aug 21
Model edge vs market
Mild edgeSpread
Market
MIN -5.5
Model
MIN -8.2
Edge
+2.7 pts
Total
Market
159.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
MIN -230
Model
MIN
Edge
aligned
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
GSmetricMIN
25-11
Record
31-7
#2
Conf rank
#1
+5.9
Pt diff
+8.8
L2
Streak
W6
6-4
Last 10
9-1
72.2
Power score
80.4
#4
Power rank
#1
70.5
Sched ahead
72.8
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
MIN -5.5·O/U 159.5·GS +190/MIN -230
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
MIN vs GS.
MIN enters on a 6-game win streak; GS is 6-4 over its last 10.
82.2%
model · MIN win prob
Recent form
- MIN9–1+9.4
- GS6–4+5.6
Situational
- MIN3d rest
- GS3d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIN has 4 straight road games; GS has 1.
Model angle
+15.3ppon MIN
MIN's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Line steam is the main caution flag.
- ▲Model confidence+1.5pp
- ▼Line steam-1.4pp
- ▲Recent form+0.8pp
Players to watch
- Olivia MilesMIN20.7points · ±4.6
Olivia Miles · 20.7 pts · last-10 21.7 vs season 19.1.
- Kayla McBrideMIN18.3points · ±9.2
Kayla McBride · 18.3 pts · last-10 18.4 vs season 18.1.
- Gabby WilliamsGS13.5points · ±6.1
Gabby Williams · 13.5 pts · last-10 12.9 vs season 14.5.
Head-to-head · 8-0 · last 8
MIN is 8-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-09-14GS @ MIN72–101
- 2025-09-18MIN @ GS75–74
- 2026-06-04GS @ MIN84–87
- 2026-06-19MIN @ GS81–75
- 2026-08-19MIN @ GS77–66
Line move
open -245→-205toward GS
The market has moved 3.8pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
82.7%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
75.2%
P(MIN win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
71.3%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
80.2%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
3.61 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
76% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Why we like MIN.
MIN's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Line steam is the main caution flag.
+15.3
pp edge · MIN
-2.31
CLV pp · steam
5.0u · large
on MIN
90.1%
±6.3pp band
5u large — +20.4pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.
Edge
+23.2pp
+7.9pp post-cal
Kelly
67.3%
5.0% sized
Decimal
1.44
+20.4pp vs price
Contributor breakdown · sums to 15.3pp · MIN over GS
- ▲+1.5ppModel confidence90% conf
MIN clears the model's lock threshold.
- ▼-1.4ppLine steam80% conf
The market moved 3.6pp away from MIN since open.
- ▲+0.8ppRecent form70% conf
MIN is 5-0 over its last 5; GS is 3-2.
- ▲+0.6ppHead to head48% conf
MIN has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
- ▲+0.5ppVenue split70% conf
MIN's venue form is 10pp stronger in the recent sample.
Open price
-245
Close price
-218
Open no-vig
68.1%
Close no-vig
65.7%
Market faded the model hard
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at MIN?
- The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+16.5pp
best edge · MIN · DraftKings
GS
no live price
MIN
★ best-218DraftKings
edge +16.5pp · implied 65.7%
| Book | GS | MIN | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +180 | -218★ | +16.5 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
MIN vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 95 high confidence
Points
- Olivia MilesMIN20.7± 4.5high
- Napheesa CollierMIN19.0± 3.8low
- Kayla McBrideMIN18.3± 9.2high
Rebounds
- Napheesa CollierMIN7.4± 2.1low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.3± 2.7high
- Kiah StokesGS5.7± 2.2high
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN6.5± 3.2high
- Veronica BurtonGS5.5± 2.0high
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.6± 2.7high
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.5± 1.5high
- Napheesa CollierMIN1.1± 1.6low
- Natasha HowardMIN1.0± 1.1high
Steals
- Veronica BurtonGS1.7± 1.0high
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.7± 1.6high
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.6± 1.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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