Connecticut Sun at Los Angeles Sparks
CON
2-15
LA
8-8
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
onnecticut Sun visit Los Angeles Sparks Saturday at 8/22 - 9:00 PM EDT. LA is 4-4 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
LA
Home
42
FG %
46
Season series
CON leads series 1-0
LA81@CON84LA@CONupcomingCON@LAtodayScouting report
CON @ LA
Tale of the tape
2-15
Record
8-8
#7
Conf rank
#5
-10.6
Pt diff
-2.9
L7
Streak
W1
1-9
Last 10
5-5
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
46.4%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA23.3± 15.0low
- Nneka OgwumikeLA15.9± 6.5medium
- Rae BurrellLA12.5± 9.0medium
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON10.1± 5.0medium
- Nneka OgwumikeLA9.3± 4.8medium
- Dearica HambyLA7.8± 2.5medium
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA6.6± 3.5low
- Leila LacanCON4.8± 2.8low
- Erica WheelerLA4.5± 2.5medium
Blocks
- Brittney GrinerCON1.5± 1.6low
- Cameron BrinkLA1.5± 0.8medium
- Saniya RiversCON0.9± 1.0medium
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.6medium
- Leila LacanCON1.6± 1.4low
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.6medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
LA
42.6%
FG%
44.7
▶46.1%
26.0%
3PT %
33.5
▶31.3%
79.2
PPG
85.9
▶88.4
18.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶20.3
13.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.6