Recent form
7-3
NY +4.9 vs IND +4.7 margin
NY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Indiana Fever at New York Liberty
IND
IND
24-13
PregameSat, 7:00 PM EDTPrime Video
NY
NY
22-15
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
ndiana Fever visit New York Liberty Saturday at 8/22 - 7:00 PM EDT. IND is 5-3 in their last 8. NY is rolling — 6-2 in their last 8.
Vegas opened NY as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 186.5. NY's moneyline implies a 59% break-even, IND the inverse. NY comes in with 2 extra days of rest.
For bettors: the NY side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 186.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
NY
Home
49
FG %
46
Season series
IND leads series 2-1
Jun 7IND75@NY83
IND75@NY83Jul 19NY88@IND108
NY88@IND108Aug 11NY92@IND106
NY92@IND106Aug 22IND@NYtoday
IND@NYtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NY -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
186.5
High-scoring · +21.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.2h
Moneyline
IND+12045%NY-14259%7· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
+1.0 since open
Total
186.5
-2.0 since open
Scouting report
IND @ NY
Rest going in
NY +2 days
INDStandard
1 day
last game Aug 20
NYLong rest
3 days
last game Aug 18
Model edge vs market
Strong edgeSpread
Market
NY -2.5
Model
NY -12.0
Edge
+9.5 pts
Total
Market
186.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
NY -142
Model
NY
Edge
aligned
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
INDmetricNY
24-13
Record
22-15
#1
Conf rank
#3
+5.6
Pt diff
+3.0
L1
Streak
L1
7-3
Last 10
7-3
61.3
Power score
73.3
#5
Power rank
#3
62.0
Sched ahead
62.7
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
NY -2.5·O/U 186.5·IND +120/NY -142
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
NY vs IND.
NY is 7-3 recently; IND is 7-3.
41.1%
model · NY win prob
Recent form
- NY7–3+4.9
- IND7–3+4.7
Situational
- NY4d rest
- IND2d rest
- +2.0d differential
NY has 2 more rest days. NY has 2 straight road games; IND has 3.
Model angle
+15.1ppon IND
IND's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. Line steam is the main caution flag.
- ▼Line steam-1.8pp
- ▲Model confidence+1.5pp
- ▼Travel burden-0.8pp
Players to watch
- Kelsey MitchellIND26.6points · ±5.3
Kelsey Mitchell · 26.6 pts · last-10 28.3 vs season 24.
- Caitlin ClarkIND22.4points · ±6.1
Caitlin Clark · 22.4 pts · last-10 23.4 vs season 20.9.
- Breanna StewartNY19.9points · ±7.0
Breanna Stewart · 19.9 pts · last-10 19.8 vs season 19.9.
Head-to-head · 3-2 · last 5
NY is 3-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-07-16IND @ NY77–98
- 2025-07-23IND @ NY84–98
- 2026-06-06IND @ NY75–83
- 2026-07-18NY @ IND88–108
- 2026-08-11NY @ IND92–106
Line move
open -108→-142toward NY
The market has moved 6.8pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
45.8%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
50.2%
P(NY win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
54.5%
P(NY win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
54.5%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.04 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Why we like IND.
IND's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. Line steam is the main caution flag.
+15.1
pp edge · IND
5.0u · large
on IND
63.2%
±6.9pp band
5u large — +17.7pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.
Edge
+19.5pp
+4.4pp post-cal
Kelly
32.5%
5.0% sized
Decimal
2.20
+17.7pp vs price
Contributor breakdown · sums to 15.1pp · IND over NY
- ▼-1.8ppLine steam90% conf
The market moved 6.8pp away from IND since open.
- ▲+1.5ppModel confidence90% conf
IND clears the model's lock threshold.
- ▼-0.8ppTravel burden58% conf
IND is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
- ▼-0.7ppVenue split66% conf
NY's venue form trims IND's edge by 14.8pp.
- ▼-0.6ppRest advantage65% conf
NY has the rest edge entering this game.
- ▲+0.2ppHead to head48% conf
IND has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at NY?
- The model favors IND, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+15.1pp
best edge · IND · DraftKings
IND
★ best+120DraftKings
edge +15.1pp · implied 43.7%
NY
no live price
| Book | IND | NY | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +120★ | -142 | +15.1 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
NY vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 95 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey MitchellIND26.6± 5.3high
- Caitlin ClarkIND22.4± 6.1high
- Breanna StewartNY19.9± 7.0high
Rebounds
- Jonquel JonesNY9.0± 5.0high
- Aliyah BostonIND8.5± 3.4high
- Breanna StewartNY7.5± 2.6high
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND8.6± 1.4high
- Sabrina IonescuNY5.4± 3.0high
- Breanna StewartNY3.5± 2.0high
Blocks
- Aliyah BostonIND1.4± 1.1high
- Breanna StewartNY1.2± 0.9high
- Jonquel JonesNY1.0± 1.0high
Steals
- Aliyah BostonIND1.8± 1.7high
- Breanna StewartNY1.4± 1.4high
- Leonie FiebichNY1.2± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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