NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CAR

CAR

53-22-7

VGK

39-26-17

NHLTue, Jun 9FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-0VegasCAR -115

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 5–3.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

Jordan Staal

C · #11

2Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Mark Stone

RW · #61

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	1	-1	3	1	2	0	18:14
J. BlakeRW · #53	1	1	1	3	2	0	2	15:14
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	8:23
N. EhlersLW · #27	1	2	2	3	1	0	0	19:09
T. HallLW · #71	0	1	1	3	0	2	2	16:33
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:38
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	18:30
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	13:48
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:18
J. StaalC · #11	2	0	2	4	2	1	0	16:34
L. StankovenC · #22	1	0	0	3	3	0	0	16:54
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	12:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	1	2	1	4	0	0	22:51
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	13:02
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	-2	1	2	1	2	22:45
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	1	0	2	2	0	10:13
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	2	2	1	1	0	24:41
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	-2	1	5	3	0	22:17

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	21	3	18	.857	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:01
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	16:09
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	10:33
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	20:44
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	13:55
B. HowdenC · #21	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:40
W. KarlssonC · #71	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	16:53
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	6:17
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	1	-1	0	3	0	0	23:58
C. SissonsC · #10	0	1	0	2	4	0	0	12:33
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	9:50
M. StoneRW · #61	1	0	-1	5	6	0	0	21:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	1	0	1	0	3	0	21:35
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:25
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	20:20
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-1	0	7	1	0	12:11
B. McNabbD · #3	0	1	0	0	1	1	2	20:46
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	1	-2	2	0	3	2	25:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	27	4	23	.852	58:15

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

Jun 3

VGK5@

CAR4

Jun 5

VGK3@

CAR4

Jun 7

CAR4@

VGK5

Jun 10

CAR5@

VGK3today

Jun 12

VGK2@

CAR4

Jun 15

CAR3@

VGK0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-11553%

VGK-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

CAR

J. Staal

Top skater

2 G · 4 SOG

B. Bussi

Goaltender

18 SV · 3 GA · .857

VGK

M. Stone

Top skater

1 G · 5 SOG

C. Hart

Goaltender

23 SV · 4 GA · .852

How it ended

CAR beat VGK 5-3. J. Staal led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	3	0	2	5
VGK	1	2	0	3

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · VGK won 1

CAR

VGK

Play-by-play · 325 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 5·VGK 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 5·VGK 3
3rd·19:45
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
CAR 5·VGK 3
3rd·19:45
Icing
CAR 5·VGK 3
3rd·19:07
Shea Theodore Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 5·VGK 3
3rd·19:05
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 5·VGK 3
3rd·19:05
Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none
CAR 5·VGK 3
3rd·18:55
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·18:34
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·18:34
Icing
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·18:09
Giveaway by Mark Stone
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·18:02
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·18:01
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·18:01
Goalie Puck Frozen - played from beyond center
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·17:16
Takeaway by Logan Stankoven
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·17:09
Shea Theodore Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·16:46
Takeaway by Jalen Chatfield
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·16:33
Jordan Martinook hit Noah Hanifin
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·16:20
Colton Sissons hit Jaccob Slavin
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·16:12
Seth Jarvis hit Shea Theodore
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·15:44
Nikolaj Ehlers faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·15:44
On-Ice Official
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·15:23
Giveaway by Jack Eichel
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·14:59
Sebastian Aho Backhand Failed Bank Attempt
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·14:58
Sebastian Aho hit Brayden McNabb
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·14:51
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·14:51
High Stick
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·14:46
Giveaway by Mitch Marner
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·14:23
Giveaway by Seth Jarvis
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·14:05
Giveaway by Tomas Hertl
CAR 4·VGK 3

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -115/VGK -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Jack EichelVGK · C
DIST MI82.899+
Shea TheodoreVGK · D
DIST MI84.899+
Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
CORSI%6699+
Shayne GostisbehereCAR · D
CORSI%6599+
Tomas HertlVGK · C
xGF%6599

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Mark Stone · VGK21:360.6958.5%71.5%21:36 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 58.5% CF · 71.5% xGF
Jordan Staal · CAR16:420.5451.6%36.7%16:42 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 51.6% CF · 36.7% xGF
Jack Eichel · VGK20:480.4551.3%67.3%20:48 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 51.3% CF · 67.3% xGF
Pavel Dorofeyev · VGK16:120.4071.4%67.4%16:12 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 71.4% CF · 67.4% xGF
Jackson Blake · CAR15:240.3952.2%65.3%15:24 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 52.2% CF · 65.3% xGF
Taylor Hall · CAR16:540.3061.3%71.3%16:54 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 61.3% CF · 71.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Brandon Bussi · CAR18–3.857-1.2118–3 · .857 SV% · -1.21 GSAx
Carter Hart · VGK23–4.852-2.0523–4 · .852 SV% · -2.05 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
52.9%
P(VGK win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.9%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.9%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.7pp

best edge · VGK · DraftKings

CAR

no live price

VGK

★ best

-105DraftKings

edge +1.7pp · implied 48.9%

Book	CAR	VGK	Best edge
DraftKings	-115	-105★	+1.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.