Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at VGK?

The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CAR

CAR

53-22-7

VGK

39-26-17

NHLTue, Jun 9FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-0VegasCAR -115

CAR · top performer

Jordan Staal

C · #11

2Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Mark Stone

RW · #61

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	1	-1	3	1	2	0	18:14
J. BlakeRW · #53	1	1	1	3	2	0	2	15:14
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	8:23
N. EhlersLW · #27	1	2	2	3	1	0	0	19:09
T. HallLW · #71	0	1	1	3	0	2	2	16:33
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:38
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	18:30
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	13:48
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:18
J. StaalC · #11	2	0	2	4	2	1	0	16:34
L. StankovenC · #22	1	0	0	3	3	0	0	16:54
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	12:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	1	2	1	4	0	0	22:51
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	13:02
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	-2	1	2	1	2	22:45
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	1	0	2	2	0	10:13
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	2	2	1	1	0	24:41
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	-2	1	5	3	0	22:17

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	21	3	18	.857	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:01
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	16:09
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	10:33
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	20:44
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	13:55
B. HowdenC · #21	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:40
W. KarlssonC · #71	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	16:53
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	6:17
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	1	-1	0	3	0	0	23:58
C. SissonsC · #10	0	1	0	2	4	0	0	12:33
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	9:50
M. StoneRW · #61	1	0	-1	5	6	0	0	21:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	1	0	1	0	3	0	21:35
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:25
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	20:20
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-1	0	7	1	0	12:11
B. McNabbD · #3	0	1	0	0	1	1	2	20:46
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	1	-2	2	0	3	2	25:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	27	4	23	.852	58:15

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

Jun 3

VGK5@

CAR4

Jun 5

VGK3@

CAR4

Jun 7

CAR4@

VGK5

Jun 10

CAR5@

VGK3today

Jun 12

VGK2@

CAR4

Jun 15

CAR3@

VGK0

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-11553%

VGK-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat VGK 5-3. J. Staal led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	3	0	2	5
VGK	1	2	0	3

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · VGK won 1

CAR

VGK

Play-by-play · 325 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 5·VGK 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 5·VGK 3
3rd·19:45
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
CAR 5·VGK 3
3rd·19:45
Icing
CAR 5·VGK 3
3rd·19:07
Shea Theodore Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 5·VGK 3
3rd·19:05
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 5·VGK 3
3rd·19:05
Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none
CAR 5·VGK 3
3rd·18:55
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Jordan Staal
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·18:34
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·18:34
Icing
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·18:09
Giveaway by Mark Stone
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·18:02
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·18:01
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·18:01
Goalie Puck Frozen - played from beyond center
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·17:16
Takeaway by Logan Stankoven
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·17:09
Shea Theodore Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·16:46
Takeaway by Jalen Chatfield
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·16:33
Jordan Martinook hit Noah Hanifin
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·16:20
Colton Sissons hit Jaccob Slavin
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·16:12
Seth Jarvis hit Shea Theodore
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·15:44
Nikolaj Ehlers faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·15:44
On-Ice Official
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·15:23
Giveaway by Jack Eichel
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·14:59
Sebastian Aho Backhand Failed Bank Attempt
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·14:58
Sebastian Aho hit Brayden McNabb
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·14:51
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·14:51
High Stick
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·14:46
Giveaway by Mitch Marner
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·14:23
Giveaway by Seth Jarvis
CAR 4·VGK 3
3rd·14:05
Giveaway by Tomas Hertl
CAR 4·VGK 3

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -115/VGK -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 5–3.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Mark Stone · VGK21:360.7758.5%67.1%21:36 TOI · 0.77 iXG · 58.5% CF · 67.1% xGF
Pavel Dorofeyev · NYR16:120.5771.4%68.8%16:12 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 71.4% CF · 68.8% xGF
Jackson Blake · CAR15:240.5652.2%64.2%15:24 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 52.2% CF · 64.2% xGF
Jordan Staal · CAR16:420.5351.6%38.0%16:42 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 51.6% CF · 38.0% xGF
Jack Eichel · VGK20:480.4651.3%60.7%20:48 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 51.3% CF · 60.7% xGF
Taylor Hall · CAR16:540.4261.3%70.6%16:54 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 61.3% CF · 70.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Brandon Bussi · CAR18–3.857-0.6418–3 · .857 SV% · -0.64 GSAx
Carter Hart · VGK23–4.852-1.2523–4 · .852 SV% · -1.25 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

35.5%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
52.9%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.9%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.9%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at VGK?: The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.5pp

best edge · CAR · DraftKings

CAR

★ best

-115DraftKings

edge +13.5pp · implied 51.1%

VGK

no live price

Book	CAR	VGK	Best edge
DraftKings	-115★	-105	+13.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.