NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1VGK

VGK

39-26-17

CAR

53-22-7

NHLTue, Jun 2FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-0VegasCAR -162

VGK · top performer

Shea Theodore

D · #27

3Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	1	0	0	3	8	0	0	16:49
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	17:19
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	13:14
J. EichelC · #9	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	20:33
T. HertlC · #48	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:10
B. HowdenC · #21	1	1	1	2	3	0	2	14:51
W. KarlssonC · #71	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	18:05
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	6:43
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	20:54
C. SissonsC · #10	0	1	0	2	4	2	0	14:01
C. SmithRW · #22	0	1	0	1	7	0	0	11:11
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	16:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	23:18
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	8:23
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	21:15
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-2	0	2	2	0	13:32
B. McNabbD · #3	0	3	3	0	0	2	0	21:13
S. TheodoreD · #27	1	2	2	2	0	2	0	23:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	29	4	25	.862	59:30

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:31
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:22
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	-1	1	4	0	0	10:48
N. EhlersLW · #27	2	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:16
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:02
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	-1	0	0	1	4	10:33
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	17:40
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:35
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	11:02
J. StaalC · #11	1	0	0	3	3	0	0	19:12
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	15:37
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	15:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	2	1	1	2	3	2	19:24
S. GostisbehereD · #4	1	0	-1	2	1	2	0	15:30
K. MillerD · #19	0	1	0	2	0	4	0	23:51
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	12:48
J. SlavinD · #74	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	21:52
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	-2	2	5	1	0	22:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	23	5	18	.783	58:14

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

VGK leads series 1-0

Jun 3

VGK5@

CAR4today

Jun 5

VGK3@

CAR4

Jun 7

CAR4@

VGK5

Jun 10

CAR5@

VGK3

Jun 12

VGK2@

CAR4

Jun 15

CAR3@

VGK0

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK+13642%

CAR-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat CAR 5-4. S. Theodore led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	1	2	2	5
CAR	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

VGK won 2 · CAR won 1

VGK

CAR

Play-by-play · 343 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·19:56
Alexander Nikishin shot blocked by Mitch Marner
·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·19:54
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·19:54
Icing
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·19:37
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·19:37
Goalie Stopped
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·19:35
Shayne Gostisbehere Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·18:57
Seth Jarvis shot blocked by Nic Dowd
·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·18:54
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·18:54
Icing
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·18:52
Shea Theodore Wrist Shot Wide Left
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·16:57
Cole Smith hit Sean Walker
·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·16:36
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·16:36
Tomas Hertl Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (5), Shea Theodore (9)
· ·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·16:17
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Logan Stankoven
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·16:17
Goalie Stopped
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·16:15
Seth Jarvis Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·15:59
Seth Jarvis Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·15:57
K'Andre Miller Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·15:54
Seth Jarvis shot blocked by Noah Hanifin
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·15:38
Rasmus Andersson Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·15:35
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·15:35
Goalie Stopped
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·15:33
Pavel Dorofeyev Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·14:47
Cole Smith hit Shayne Gostisbehere
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·14:17
Alexander Nikishin Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·14:11
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·14:11
Goalie Stopped
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·14:09
Jackson Blake Backhand Wide Right
·
VGK 4·CAR 4

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·VGK +136/CAR -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Carolina Hurricanes and beat them, 5–4.

VGK +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Tomas Hertl · VGK15:181.0058.1%69.0%15:18 TOI · 1.00 iXG · 58.1% CF · 69.0% xGF
Pavel Dorofeyev · NYR17:360.7753.7%65.0%17:36 TOI · 0.77 iXG · 53.7% CF · 65.0% xGF
Jack Eichel · VGK20:540.4857.4%69.5%20:54 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 57.4% CF · 69.5% xGF
Nikolaj Ehlers · CAR16:300.4166.7%50.9%16:30 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 66.7% CF · 50.9% xGF
William Karlsson · VGK18:120.3747.2%42.8%18:12 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 47.2% CF · 42.8% xGF
Brett Howden · VGK15:060.3348.3%38.9%15:06 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 48.3% CF · 38.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Carter Hart · VGK25–4.862-1.3125–4 · .862 SV% · -1.31 GSAx
Frederik Andersen · CAR18–5.783-2.1518–5 · .783 SV% · -2.15 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.7%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
58.0%
P(CAR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.0%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.0%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.6pp

best edge · VGK · DraftKings

VGK

★ best

+136DraftKings

edge +11.6pp · implied 40.7%

CAR

no live price

Book	VGK	CAR	Best edge
DraftKings	+136★	-162	+11.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.