NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1VGK

VGK

39-26-17

CAR

53-22-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 997 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jun 2FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-0VegasCAR -162

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Carolina Hurricanes and beat them, 5–4.

VGK +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

Brett Howden

C · #21

2Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
I. BarbashevLW · #49	1	0	0	3	8	0	0	16:49
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	17:19
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	13:14
J. EichelC · #9	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	20:33
T. HertlC · #48	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:10
B. HowdenC · #21	1	1	1	2	3	0	2	14:51
W. KarlssonC · #71	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	18:05
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	6:43
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	20:54
C. SissonsC · #10	0	1	0	2	4	2	0	14:01
C. SmithRW · #22	0	1	0	1	7	0	0	11:11
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	16:59

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	23:18
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	8:23
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	21:15
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-2	0	2	2	0	13:32
B. McNabbD · #3	0	3	3	0	0	2	0	21:13
S. TheodoreD · #27	1	2	2	2	0	2	0	23:00

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
C. HartG · #79	29	4	25	.862	59:30

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:31
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:22
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	-1	1	4	0	0	10:48
N. EhlersLW · #27	2	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:16
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:02
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	-1	0	0	1	4	10:33
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	17:40
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:35
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	11:02
J. StaalC · #11	1	0	0	3	3	0	0	19:12
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	15:37
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	15:24

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	2	1	1	2	3	2	19:24
S. GostisbehereD · #4	1	0	-1	2	1	2	0	15:30
K. MillerD · #19	0	1	0	2	0	4	0	23:51
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	12:48
J. SlavinD · #74	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	21:52
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	-2	2	5	1	0	22:19

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
F. AndersenG · #31	23	5	18	.783	58:14

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

VGK leads series 1-0

Jun 3

VGK5@

CAR4today

Jun 5

VGK3@

CAR4

Jun 7

CAR@

VGK

Jun 10

CAR@

VGKupcoming

Jun 12

VGK@

CARupcoming

Jun 15

CAR@

VGKupcoming

Jun 18

VGK@

CARupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK+13642%

CAR-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat CAR 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	1	2	2	5
CAR	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

VGK won 2 · CAR won 1

VGK

CAR

Play-by-play · 343 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·19:56
Alexander Nikishin shot blocked by Mitch Marner
·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·19:54
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·19:54
Icing
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·19:37
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·19:37
Goalie Stopped
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·19:35
Shayne Gostisbehere Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·18:57
Seth Jarvis shot blocked by Nic Dowd
·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·18:54
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·18:54
Icing
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·18:52
Shea Theodore Wrist Shot Wide Left
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·16:57
Cole Smith hit Sean Walker
·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·16:36
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·16:36
Tomas Hertl Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (5), Shea Theodore (9)
· ·
VGK 5·CAR 4
3rd·16:17
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Logan Stankoven
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·16:17
Goalie Stopped
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·16:15
Seth Jarvis Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·15:59
Seth Jarvis Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·15:57
K'Andre Miller Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·15:54
Seth Jarvis shot blocked by Noah Hanifin
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·15:38
Rasmus Andersson Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·15:35
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·15:35
Goalie Stopped
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·15:33
Pavel Dorofeyev Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·14:47
Cole Smith hit Shayne Gostisbehere
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·14:17
Alexander Nikishin Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·14:11
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·14:11
Goalie Stopped
VGK 4·CAR 4
3rd·14:09
Jackson Blake Backhand Wide Right
·
VGK 4·CAR 4

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·VGK +136/CAR -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Jack EichelVGK · C
DIST MI66.099+
Shea TheodoreVGK · D
SKATE MPH23.399
Sebastian AhoCAR · C
DIST MI51.098
Noah HanifinVGK · D
DIST MI61.198
Sean WalkerCAR · D
SKATE MPH22.998

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.2%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
59.0%
P(CAR win)
67%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.0%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.0%
P(CAR win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.1pp

best edge · VGK · DraftKings

VGK

★ best

+136DraftKings

edge +4.1pp · implied 40.7%

CAR

no live price

Book	VGK	CAR	Best edge
DraftKings	+136★	-162	+4.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.