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THE ONE Analytics
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San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

SF
SF

SF

PregameThu, 8:35 PM EDT
LAR
LAR

LAR

Melbourne Cricket Ground · Melbourne

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

⤓

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 57-40
61%Last 30 · 287-180
Receipts →

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · LAR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LAR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Qb Elo

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LAR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Dvoa Proxy

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LAR win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

CHAMPION · NBANew York Knicks win the NBA Finals 4-1
CHAMPION · NHLCarolina Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup Final 4-2
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Caminero (TB): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over KC — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · WNBAM. Mabrey (TOR): 53 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST in a win over LA — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBMarlins: Reinstated RHP Max Meyer from the bereavement list (Jun 25)
LAST NIGHT · MLBT. Imai (HOU): 6.0 IP · 10 K in a win over DET — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Schlittler (NYY): 5.0 IP · 9 K against BOS
TRANSACTION · MLBPadres: Sent 2B Jake Cronenworth on a rehab assignment to El Paso (PCL) (Jun 25)
LAST NIGHT · MLBI. Seymour (TB): 6.2 IP · 7 K in a win over KC
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 32 PTS · 9 REB in a win over DAL
TRANSACTION · MLBDiamondbacks: Reinstated OF Max Kepler from the restricted list (Jun 25)
TRANSACTION · WNBALynx: Waived C Teaira McCowan (Jun 25)
TRANSACTION · NHLBlue Jackets: Acquired F Luke Tuch from Montreal in exchange for F Hunter McKown (Jun 25)
TRANSACTION · NHLPanthers: Acquired F Garnet Hathaway and a 2026 sixth-round draft pick from Philadelphia …
TONIGHT · WNBAWSH @ CON, 6/26 - 7:30 PM EDT — WSH -4.5
CHAMPION · NBANew York Knicks win the NBA Finals 4-1
CHAMPION · NHLCarolina Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup Final 4-2
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Caminero (TB): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over KC — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · WNBAM. Mabrey (TOR): 53 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST in a win over LA — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBMarlins: Reinstated RHP Max Meyer from the bereavement list (Jun 25)
LAST NIGHT · MLBT. Imai (HOU): 6.0 IP · 10 K in a win over DET — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Schlittler (NYY): 5.0 IP · 9 K against BOS
TRANSACTION · MLBPadres: Sent 2B Jake Cronenworth on a rehab assignment to El Paso (PCL) (Jun 25)
LAST NIGHT · MLBI. Seymour (TB): 6.2 IP · 7 K in a win over KC
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 32 PTS · 9 REB in a win over DAL
TRANSACTION · MLBDiamondbacks: Reinstated OF Max Kepler from the restricted list (Jun 25)
TRANSACTION · WNBALynx: Waived C Teaira McCowan (Jun 25)
TRANSACTION · NHLBlue Jackets: Acquired F Luke Tuch from Montreal in exchange for F Hunter McKown (Jun 25)
TRANSACTION · NHLPanthers: Acquired F Garnet Hathaway and a 2026 sixth-round draft pick from Philadelphia …
TONIGHT · WNBAWSH @ CON, 6/26 - 7:30 PM EDT — WSH -4.5

Team rate stats · season-to-date

Tale of the tape

nflverse · weekly aggregates

SF

SF

league avg

LAR

LAR

28.6

Pts / game

23.5

▶

38.5

361

Yds / game

342

▶

404

254

Pass yds / G

225

▶

277

107

Rush yds / G

117

▶

127

1.1

TO / G

0.9

▶

0.8

NFL·Thu, Sep 10·9/10 - 8:35 PM EDT/VegasLAR -3

Preview · NFL

San Francisco 49ers visit Los Angeles Rams Thursday at 9/10 - 8:35 PM EDT.

Vegas opened LAR as a 3.0-point favorite with the total at 48.5. The line sits exactly on the 3 key number. LAR's moneyline implies a 64% break-even, SF the inverse.

For bettors: the LAR side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 48.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAR -3.0

★ on key 3

Total

48.5

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF+14541%
LARLAR-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAR -3.0↗SpreadBet LAR -3.0↗

Scouting report

SF @ LAR

9/10 - 8:35 PM EDT

Model edge vs market

Lean only
Spread

Market

LAR -3.0

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

48.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

LAR -175

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Offensive efficiency · 2025 season

17 / 17 weeks

361

+18.9 vs avg

Yards / game

404

+61.5 vs avg

254

+29.0 vs avg

Pass yds / game

277

+51.9 vs avg

107

-10.0 vs avg

Rush yds / game

127

+9.7 vs avg

28.6

+5.1 vs avg

Off TD pts / game

38.5

+15.0 vs avg

1.10

-0.2 vs avg

Turnovers / game

0.80

+0.1 vs avg

Tale of the tape

SFmetricLAR

12-5

Record

12-5

#3

Conf rank

#2

+66.0

Pt diff

+172.0

L1

Streak

W1

—

Last 10

—

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

LAR -3·O/U 48.5·SF +145/LAR -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 2 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.0

0.0 since open

Total

48.5

0.0 since open