NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12PHI

ORL

45-37

97109

PHI

45-37

NBAWed, Apr 15FinalSeriesPHI wins series 2-1VegasPHI -1.5

ORL · top performer

Desmond Bane

G · #3

23.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Andre Drummond

C · #1

20.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 19pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:53

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	36	18	7-22	0-5	4-6	-17	5	4
F. WagnerF · #22	29	12	5-11	0-2	2-2	+1	4	3
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	32	5	1-7	0-2	3-4	-14	11	1
D. BaneG · #3	40	34	10-16	4-6	10-11	-11	3	3
J. SuggsG · #4	37	4	1-9	1-6	1-1	-14	6	4
Bench
J. CainF · #8	15	5	2-5	1-2	—	-7	2	1
T. da SilvaF · #23	14	4	2-2	—	—	+2	2	0
G. BitadzeC · #35	15	2	1-1	—	—	+2	2	0
A. BlackG · #0	22	13	4-8	1-4	4-7	-2	6	3
Team		97	33-81	7-27	24-31		41	19
DNP: M. Wagner, N. Penda, C. Castleton, J. Carter, A. Morales, J. Howard, J. Richardson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	36	16	6-16	1-6	3-4	+16	5	5
A. BonaC · #30	16	2	0-1	—	2-2	+3	3	0
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	40	19	6-12	5-10	2-2	+19	3	1
T. MaxeyG · #0	42	31	11-25	3-9	6-8	+11	2	6
V. EdgecombeG · #77	42	19	7-16	1-5	4-5	+11	11	1
Bench
D. BarlowF · #25	10	4	2-4	0-1	—	-6	2	0
A. DrummondC · #1	31	14	5-8	2-3	2-2	+9	10	2
Q. GrimesG · #5	22	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	-3	4	2
Team		109	38-85	12-35	21-25		40	17
DNP: T. Watford, M. Beauchamp, J. Walker, D. Terry, J. Edwards, K. Lowry, T. Martin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

33-81

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-85

FG %

7-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-35

24-31

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHI wins series 2-1

Oct 27

ORL124@

PHI136

Nov 26

ORL144@

PHI103

Jan 10

PHI103@

ORL91

Season series

Apr 15

ORL97@

PHI109today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL-10551%

PHI-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat ORL 109-97. A. Drummond led with 14 PTS, 10 REB, 2 AST. Paolo Banchero's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 29 REB · 15 AST

GS 46

Bench(4)

24 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST

GS 19

PHIstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST

GS 57

Bench(3)

22 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI3rd Quarter · 4:53 · 63-73

+19pp→ 88% WP

Paolo Banchero · lost ball turnover (Andre Drummond steals)

ORL4th Quarter · 9:18 · 81-83

+16pp→ 39% WP

Anthony Black de · fensive rebound

PHI4th Quarter · 4:02 · 93-97

+15pp→ 78% WP

Franz Wagner · misses 23-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	24	31	19	23	97
PHI	28	31	20	30	109

Period scoring

ORL won 0 · PHI won 3

Banchero 8

Jr. 9

Bane 12

George 11

Bane 9

Edgecombe 11

Bane 6

Maxey 11

ORL

PHI

Shooting comparison

ORL

PHI

41%

33-81

45%

38-85

26%

7-27

3PT

34%

12-35

77%

24-31

84%

21-25

Play-by-play · 480 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 97·PHI 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 97·PHI 109
Q4·8.3
shot clock turnover
ORL 97·PHI 109
Q4·31.4
Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound
ORL 97·PHI 109
Q4·35.2
Wendell Carter Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper
·
ORL 97·PHI 109
Q4·40.3
Franz Wagner enters the game for Anthony Black
· ·
ORL 97·PHI 109
Q4·40.3
Magic Full timeout
ORL 97·PHI 109
Q4·41.2
Andre Drummond makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)
·
ORL 97·PHI 109
Q4·55.7
76ers defensive team rebound
ORL 97·PHI 106
Q4·57.8
Paolo Banchero misses two point shot
ORL 97·PHI 106
+0.7pp
Q4·1:06
Kelly Oubre Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 97·PHI 106
−0.6pp
Q4·1:06
Kelly Oubre Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 97·PHI 105
Q4·1:06
Anthony Black enters the game for Franz Wagner
· ·
ORL 97·PHI 104
Q4·1:06
Wendell Carter Jr. shooting foul
·
ORL 97·PHI 104
+1pp
Q4·1:09
Paul George defensive rebound
ORL 97·PHI 104
+0.6pp
Q4·1:11
Tyrese Maxey blocks Jalen Suggs 's 3-foot two point shot
·
ORL 97·PHI 104
+2pp
Q4·1:15
Jalen Suggs defensive rebound
ORL 97·PHI 104
Q4·1:19
Paul George misses 10-foot step back jumpshot
ORL 97·PHI 104
−1pp
Q4·1:40
Paul George defensive rebound
ORL 97·PHI 104
+0.6pp
Q4·1:42
Desmond Bane misses 10-foot pullup jump shot
ORL 97·PHI 104
+2pp
Q4·1:53
VJ Edgecombe makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 97·PHI 104
−2pp
Q4·1:53
VJ Edgecombe makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 97·PHI 103
+0.6pp
Q4·1:53
Desmond Bane shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 97·PHI 102
+5pp
Q4·2:09
Franz Wagner makes 1-foot dunk (Jalen Suggs assists)
· ·
ORL 97·PHI 102
−3pp
Q4·2:11
Magic offensive team rebound
ORL 95·PHI 102
−2pp
Q4·2:11
Andre Drummond blocks Paolo Banchero 's 2-foot driving layup
·
ORL 95·PHI 102
+3pp
Q4·2:26
VJ Edgecombe makes 4-foot layup (Andre Drummond assists)
·
ORL 95·PHI 102
+3pp
Q4·2:43
Jalen Suggs personal foul
ORL 95·PHI 100
+2pp
Q4·2:50
Andre Drummond defensive rebound
ORL 95·PHI 100
+1pp
Q4·2:52
Paolo Banchero misses 23-foot three point jumper
ORL 95·PHI 100
+5pp

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 223.5·ORL -105/PHI -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers held off Orlando Magic, 109–97.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 12). Total stayed UNDER 223.5 by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Franz WagnerORL · F
DEFL4.399
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high
Desmond BaneORL
1.5± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

PHI

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.9%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

46.0%

114.2

PPG

114.9

114.3

26.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR