NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5GS

37-45

126121

LAC

42-40

NBAWed, Apr 15FinalSeriesLAC win series 3-1VegasLAC -5.5

GS · top performer

Stephen Curry

G · #30

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAC · top performer

Darius Garland

G · #10

18.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ LAC

Biggest swing: 40pp · 4th Quarter · 48.6

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	35	7	3-5	1-3	—	0	6	9
G. SantosF · #15	32	20	9-13	2-4	—	+16	6	5
K. PorzingisC · #7	28	20	8-12	3-6	1-3	-4	5	5
S. CurryG · #30	36	35	12-23	7-12	4-5	+9	1	4
B. PodziemskiG · #2	41	17	5-11	2-7	5-8	+10	7	2
Bench
A. HorfordC · #20	22	14	5-8	4-7	—	-7	3	0
O. YurtsevenC · #77	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
G. Payton IIG · #0	24	6	2-4	—	2-3	+8	3	1
D. MeltonG · #8	23	7	3-7	0-2	1-2	-7	5	3
Team		126	47-83	19-41	13-21		36	29
DNP: C. Bassey, Se. Curry, P. Spencer, W. Richard

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	40	21	8-17	1-6	4-4	+6	7	3
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	23	13	5-9	1-4	2-2	-7	2	1
B. LopezC · #11	37	17	7-16	1-6	2-2	-7	5	1
K. DunnG · #8	32	7	3-5	1-2	—	-9	3	10
D. GarlandG · #10	31	21	8-15	2-4	3-3	-9	5	8
Bench
J. CollinsF · #20	21	11	5-8	1-3	—	-4	9	0
J. MillerG · #22	15	5	1-2	1-1	2-2	0	2	2
B. MathurinG · #9	30	23	7-11	5-6	4-4	-4	3	2
K. SandersG · #4	11	3	1-3	1-3	—	+9	0	3
Team		121	45-86	14-35	17-17		36	30
DNP: N. Batum, I. Jackson, B. Bogdanovic, C. Christie

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

LAC

Home

47-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-86

FG %

19-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-35

13-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAC win series 3-1

Oct 29

LAC79@

GS98

Jan 6

GS102@

LAC103

Mar 3

LAC114@

GS101

Apr 13

GS110@

LAC115

Season series

Apr 16

GS126@

LAC121today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS+18036%

LAC-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -5.5↗SpreadBet LAC -5.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat LAC 126-121. S. Curry led the way with 35 points and 4 assists. GS outscored the other side 43-32 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAC vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 25 REB · 25 AST

GS 85

Bench(4)

27 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST

GS 21

LACstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 22 REB · 23 AST

GS 69

Bench(4)

42 PTS · 14 REB · 7 AST

GS 36

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS4th Quarter · 2:12 · 117-115

+17pp→ 59% WP

Al Horford · makes 26-foot running jump shot (Stephen Curry assists)

GS4th Quarter · 50.4 · 120-117

+22pp→ 73% WP

Stephen Curry · makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshot (Draymond Green assists)

GS4th Quarter · 48.6 · 120-117

+40pp→ 83% WP

Bennedict Mathurin · bad pass turnover (Draymond Green steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	22	31	30	43	126
LAC	31	30	28	32	121

Period scoring

GS won 3 · LAC won 1

Podziemski 5

Garland 8

Podziemski 6

II 11

Curry 16

Jr. 17

Horford 12

Lopez 15

LAC

Shooting comparison

LAC

57%

47-83

52%

45-86

46%

19-41

3PT

40%

14-35

62%

13-21

100%

17-17

Play-by-play · 458 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 126·LAC 121
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 126·LAC 121
−0.8pp
Q4·5.9
Derrick Jones Jr. makes driving dunk
GS 126·LAC 121
Q4·9.5
Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 126·LAC 119
Q4·9.5
Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 125·LAC 119
−7pp
Q4·9.5
Kris Dunn personal take foul
GS 124·LAC 119
−3pp
Q4·16.9
Kawhi Leonard makes 1-foot dunk (Brook Lopez assists)
·
GS 124·LAC 119
Q4·32.5
Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2
·
GS 124·LAC 117
Q4·32.5
Warriors offensive team rebound
GS 123·LAC 117
+1pp
Q4·32.5
Stephen Curry misses free throw 1 of 2
·
GS 123·LAC 117
+0.6pp
Q4·32.5
Brook Lopez personal foul
GS 123·LAC 117
−2pp
Q4·40.3
Kawhi Leonard lost ball turnover (Draymond Green steals)
·
GS 123·LAC 117
−4pp
Q4·46.3
Kris Dunn enters the game for Darius GarlandBIG MOMENT
·
GS 123·LAC 117
+7pp
Q4·46.3
Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 1 of 1
GS 123·LAC 117
−2pp
Q4·46.3
(00:46.3) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
GS 122·LAC 117
+5pp
Q4·46.3
Darius Garland shooting foulBIG MOMENT
GS 122·LAC 117
−7pp
Q4·46.3
Bennedict Mathurin defensive goaltending violation
GS 122·LAC 117
Q4·46.3
Brandin Podziemski makes two point shot (Draymond Green assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 122·LAC 117
−5pp
Q4·48.6
Bennedict Mathurin bad pass turnover (Draymond Green steals)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 120·LAC 117
−40pp
Q4·50.4
Gary Payton II enters the game for Gui Santos
·
GS 120·LAC 117
Q4·50.4
Darius Garland enters the game for Kris Dunn
·
GS 120·LAC 117
Q4·50.4
Clippers Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
GS 120·LAC 117
+30pp
Q4·50.4
Stephen Curry makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshot (Draymond Green assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
GS 120·LAC 117
−22pp
Q4·1:07
Draymond Green defensive rebound
GS 117·LAC 117
−2pp
Q4·1:10
Bennedict Mathurin misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
GS 117·LAC 117
−7pp
Q4·1:32
Kawhi Leonard defensive rebound
GS 117·LAC 117
+2pp
Q4·1:35
Stephen Curry misses 29-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
GS 117·LAC 117
+7pp
Q4·1:51
Brook Lopez makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 117·LAC 117
−7pp
Q4·1:51
Derrick Jones Jr. enters the game for Darius Garland
·
GS 117·LAC 116
Q4·1:51
Brook Lopez makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 117·LAC 116
+2pp

Betting line

LAC -5.5·O/U 220.5·GS +180/LAC -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

olden State Warriors went into LA Clippers and beat them, 126–121. Decided by 5.

GS +5.5 cashed (LAC lost outright). Total cleared the 220.5 OVER by 26.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kawhi LeonardLAC · F
USG%33.399
Kristaps PorzingisGS · C
CONT9.498
Stephen CurryGS · G
USG%31.597
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Darius GarlandLAC · G
DRIVES13.896

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAC vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Kawhi LeonardLAC
25.5± 4.3high
Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
20.4± 6.0high

Rebounds

Kawhi LeonardLAC
6.5± 1.4high
John CollinsLAC
5.8± 2.5high
Kristaps PorzingisGS
5.6± 2.4high

Assists

Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
4.8± 1.7high

Blocks

Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high
Isaiah JacksonLAC
1.2± 0.8high

Steals

Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

LAC

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

46.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.5%

114.5

PPG

114.9

113.9

28.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

23.8

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR