NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CHA

MIA

43-39

126127

CHA

44-38

NBATue, Apr 14FinalSeriesMIA wins series 3-1VegasCHA -5.5

MIA · top performer

Davion Mitchell

G · #45

23.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Miles Bridges

F · #0

25.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIA ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 51pp · OT · 4.7

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	42	27	10-18	4-8	3-3	-6	7	3
B. AdebayoC · #13	11	6	3-3	—	—	+1	3	1
K. WareC · #7	42	12	5-12	2-8	—	-5	19	4
D. MitchellG · #45	48	28	12-24	4-9	—	-6	4	6
T. HerroG · #14	34	23	7-18	3-6	6-6	-2	3	6
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	+3	1	0
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	41	13	5-14	2-6	1-2	+4	6	8
N. PowellG · #24	19	11	5-9	1-2	—	+11	2	1
P. LarssonG · #9	22	6	2-4	0-1	2-3	-5	3	3
Team		126	49-103	16-41	12-14		48	32
DNP: M. Gardner, K. Johnson, N. Jovic, D. Smith, J. Young, K. Jakucionis

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	43	28	10-18	5-10	3-3	-7	9	2
M. DiabateF · #14	36	8	4-5	—	—	-17	14	1
B. MillerF · #24	37	23	9-17	5-10	—	+5	5	5
L. BallG · #1	40	30	12-31	2-16	4-4	+15	5	10
K. KnueppelG · #7	34	6	2-12	0-6	2-2	-20	5	1
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	18	5	2-8	1-5	—	-2	2	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	13	6	3-4	—	—	+12	5	1
C. WhiteG · #3	26	19	7-15	5-8	—	+21	5	3
J. GreenG · #10	5	0	0-1	—	—	0	1	0
S. JamesG · #4	13	2	1-2	0-1	—	-2	3	3
Team		127	50-113	18-56	9-9		54	26
DNP: X. Tillman, T. Salaun, P. Connaughton, T. Mann, L. McNeeley

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

49-103

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

50-113

FG %

16-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-56

12-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

9-9

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA wins series 3-1

Oct 28

CHA117@

MIA144

Nov 8

CHA108@

MIA126

Mar 7

MIA128@

CHA120

Mar 17

MIA106@

CHA136

Season series

Apr 14

MIA126@

CHA127today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIA+19534%

CHA-23870%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -5.5↗SpreadBet CHA -5.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat MIA 127-126. M. Bridges paced them with 28 PTS, 9 REB, 2 AST. CHA outscored the other side 37-29 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs MIA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MIAstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 36 REB · 20 AST

GS 90

Bench(4)

30 PTS · 12 REB · 12 AST

GS 24

CHAstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

95 PTS · 38 REB · 19 AST

GS 76

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIA3rd Quarter · 3:21 · 79-76

+27pp→ 47% WP

Pelle Larsson · bad pass turnover (Coby White steals)

CHA4th Quarter · 10.8 · 114-114

+32pp→ 48% WP

Coby White · makes 23-foot fade away jump shot (Sion James assists)

CHAOT · 4.7 · 126-127

+51pp→ 76% WP

LaMelo Ball · makes driving layup (Sion James assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
MIA	24	30	29	31	12	126
CHA	26	26	37	25	13	127

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · CHA won 3

Wiggins 7

Bridges 10

Mitchell 6

Knueppel 8

Wiggins 8

White 14

Mitchell 9

Diabate 8

Herro 6

Bridges 5

MIA

CHA

Shooting comparison

MIA

CHA

48%

49-103

44%

50-113

39%

16-41

3PT

32%

18-56

86%

12-14

100%

9-9

Play-by-play · 533 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
MIA 126·CHA 127
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
MIA 126·CHA 127
OT·0.0
Sion James defensive rebound
MIA 126·CHA 127
OT·0.0
Miles Bridges blocks Davion Mitchell 's 5-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
MIA 126·CHA 127
+24pp
OT·4.7
LaMelo Ball makes driving layup (Sion James assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 126·CHA 127
+51pp
OT·8.7
Norman Powell enters the game for Tyler Herro
·
MIA 126·CHA 125
OT·8.7
Coby White enters the game for Moussa Diabate
·
MIA 126·CHA 125
OT·8.7
LaMelo Ball enters the game for Ryan Kalkbrenner
·
MIA 126·CHA 125
OT·8.7
Hornets Full timeout
MIA 126·CHA 125
OT·8.7
Tyler Herro makes free throw 3 of 3
MIA 126·CHA 125
+3pp
OT·8.7
Andrew Wiggins enters the game for Norman Powell
·
MIA 125·CHA 125
OT·8.7
Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
MIA 125·CHA 125
OT·8.7
Tyler Herro makes free throw 2 of 3BIG MOMENT
MIA 125·CHA 125
−26pp
OT·8.7
Tyler Herro makes free throw 1 of 3
MIA 124·CHA 125
−3pp
OT·8.7
LaMelo Ball shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIA 123·CHA 125
−17pp
OT·12.8
LaMelo Ball bad pass turnover (Pelle Larsson steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 123·CHA 125
−11pp
OT·23.5
Tyler Herro makes 22-foot three point shot (Pelle Larsson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 123·CHA 125
−12pp
OT·26.0
Tyler Herro enters the game for Andrew Wiggins
·
MIA 120·CHA 125
OT·26.0
Sion James enters the game for Coby White
·
MIA 120·CHA 125
OT·26.0
Heat Full timeout
MIA 120·CHA 125
OT·26.0
LaMelo Ball makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
MIA 120·CHA 125
+8pp
OT·48.1
Pelle Larsson enters the game for Tyler Herro
·
MIA 120·CHA 123
OT·48.1
LaMelo Ball enters the game for Grant Williams
·
MIA 120·CHA 123
OT·48.1
Coby White enters the game for Sion James
·
MIA 120·CHA 123
OT·48.1
Hornets Full timeout
MIA 120·CHA 123
OT·48.1
Davion Mitchell makes driving layup
MIA 120·CHA 123
−4pp
OT·54.3
Norman Powell enters the game for Kel'el Ware
·
MIA 118·CHA 123
OT·54.3
Grant Williams enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
MIA 118·CHA 123
OT·54.3
Sion James enters the game for Coby White
·
MIA 118·CHA 123
OT·54.3
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
MIA 118·CHA 123
−5pp

Betting line

CHA -5.5·O/U 228.5·MIA +195/CHA -238

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets held off Miami Heat, 127–126 in overtime. It came down to the final possession.

MIA +5.5 cashed (CHA won by 1). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 24.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
LaMelo BallCHA · G
USG%31.397
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Coby WhiteCHA · G
USG%29.195
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIA

league avg

CHA

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

46.8%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

120.9

PPG

◀

114.9

115.8

29.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.2

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR