NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4POR

POR

42-40

114110

PHX

45-37

NBATue, Apr 14FinalSeriesPHX wins series 2-1VegasPHX -2.5

POR · top performer

Deni Avdija

F · #8

34.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Dillon Brooks

F · #3

20.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 65pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:05

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. CamaraF · #33	36	8	3-9	2-7	—	-6	4	0
D. AvdijaF · #8	38	41	15-22	3-8	8-13	+13	7	12
D. ClinganC · #23	29	2	1-6	0-3	—	+8	11	4
J. HolidayG · #5	38	21	7-18	4-11	3-4	-1	4	4
S. HendersonG · #00	17	9	3-6	1-3	2-2	+8	3	2
Bench
J. GrantF · #9	19	16	5-12	4-8	2-2	-4	2	0
K. MurrayF · #24	12	0	—	—	—	+10	3	3
R. Williams IIIC · #35	16	2	1-6	0-1	—	-14	7	1
M. ThybulleG · #4	13	3	1-2	1-1	—	-13	0	0
S. SharpeG · #17	21	12	4-7	2-5	2-2	+19	1	1
Team		114	40-88	17-47	17-23		42	27
DNP: Y. Hansen, V. Krejci, B. Wesley, S. Cissoko

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BrooksF · #3	37	20	6-10	2-4	6-6	+9	7	2
M. WilliamsC · #15	22	4	2-3	—	—	-2	4	2
D. BookerG · #1	38	22	7-17	0-2	8-13	-3	1	4
J. GoodwinG · #23	29	12	4-7	3-6	1-3	0	4	0
J. GreenG · #4	39	35	14-29	2-7	5-6	-5	5	2
Bench
R. O'NealeF · #00	24	7	3-5	1-3	—	-12	8	3
O. IghodaroF · #11	23	3	1-2	—	1-2	+3	1	6
R. DunnF · #0	9	2	1-2	—	—	-10	4	1
C. GillespieG · #12	20	5	1-4	1-3	2-2	0	4	0
Team		110	39-79	9-25	23-32		38	20
DNP: H. Highsmith, R. Fleming, K. Maluach, A. Coffey, J. Bouyea

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

40-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-79

FG %

17-47

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-25

17-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-32

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX wins series 2-1

Nov 19

PHX127@

POR110

Feb 4

PHX130@

POR125

Feb 23

POR92@

PHX77

Season series

Apr 15

POR114@

PHX110today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

215.5

Defensive · -10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR+13043%

PHX-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -2.5↗SpreadBet PHX -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

215.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat PHX 114-110. D. Avdija led the way with 41 points and 12 assists. Jerami Grant's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (65pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 29 REB · 22 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST

GS 25

PHXstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 21 REB · 10 AST

GS 64

Bench(4)

17 PTS · 17 REB · 10 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX4th Quarter · 10:48 · 83-88

+40pp→ 76% WP

Jrue Holiday · enters the game for Deni Avdija

PHX4th Quarter · 7:17 · 87-95

+53pp→ 92% WP

Toumani Camara · bad pass turnover (Royce O'Neale steals)

POR3rd Quarter · 4:05 · 79-73

+65pp→ 71% WP

Jerami Grant · enters the game for Toumani Camara

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	31	34	18	31	114
PHX	33	29	20	28	110

Period scoring

POR won 2 · PHX won 2

Holiday 11

Booker 12

Avdija 12

Green 16

Avdija 11

Clingan 19

Avdija 12

O'Neale 35

POR

PHX

Shooting comparison

POR

PHX

45%

40-88

49%

39-79

36%

17-47

3PT

36%

9-25

74%

17-23

72%

23-32

Play-by-play · 500 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 114·PHX 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 114·PHX 110
−0.5pp
Q4·0.6
Jerami Grant makes 2-foot driving dunk (Jrue Holiday assists)BIG MOMENT
·
POR 114·PHX 110
−7pp
Q4·4.5
Jordan Goodwin lost ball turnover (Jerami Grant steals)BIG MOMENT
·
POR 112·PHX 110
−9pp
Q4·5.5
Jordan Goodwin offensive rebound
POR 112·PHX 110
−1pp
Q4·8.9
Jalen Green misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
POR 112·PHX 110
−14pp
Q4·16.1
Matisse Thybulle enters the game for Deni Avdija
·
POR 112·PHX 110
Q4·16.1
Jalen Green enters the game for Mark Williams
·
POR 112·PHX 110
Q4·16.1
Collin Gillespie enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
POR 112·PHX 110
Q4·16.1
Suns Full timeout
POR 112·PHX 110
Q4·16.1
Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
POR 112·PHX 110
+10pp
Q4·16.1
Kris Murray enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe
·
POR 111·PHX 110
Q4·16.1
Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Jalen Green
·
POR 111·PHX 110
Q4·16.1
Mark Williams enters the game for Dillon Brooks
·
POR 111·PHX 110
Q4·16.1
Dillon Brooks shooting foulBIG MOMENT
POR 111·PHX 110
−25pp
Q4·16.1
Deni Avdija makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
POR 111·PHX 110
+11pp
Q4·31.1
Shaedon Sharpe enters the game for Robert Williams III
· ·
POR 109·PHX 110
Q4·31.1
Jerami Grant enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
POR 109·PHX 110
Q4·31.1
Trail Blazers Full timeout
POR 109·PHX 110
Q4·31.1
Donovan Clingan defensive rebound
POR 109·PHX 110
Q4·32.5
Jordan Goodwin misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
POR 109·PHX 110
−21pp
Q4·32.5
Deni Avdija enters the game for Matisse Thybulle
·
POR 109·PHX 110
Q4·32.5
Robert Williams III enters the game for Kris Murray
· ·
POR 109·PHX 110
Q4·32.5
Donovan Clingan enters the game for Jerami Grant
·
POR 109·PHX 110
Q4·32.5
Toumani Camara shooting foulBIG MOMENT
POR 109·PHX 110
+21pp
Q4·32.5
Jordan Goodwin makes two point shot (Devin Booker assists)BIG MOMENT
·
POR 109·PHX 110
+8pp
Q4·37.3
Matisse Thybulle enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe
·
POR 109·PHX 108
Q4·37.3
Kris Murray enters the game for Deni Avdija
·
POR 109·PHX 108
Q4·37.3
Suns Full timeout
POR 109·PHX 108
Q4·37.3
Deni Avdija makes 4-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
POR 109·PHX 108
−9pp

Betting line

PHX -2.5·O/U 215.5·POR +130/PHX -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ortland Trail Blazers went into Phoenix Suns and beat them, 114–110. Decided by 4.

POR +2.5 cashed (PHX lost outright). Total cleared the 215.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
7.4± 1.6high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.1± 2.1high

Assists

Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high
Damian LillardPOR
6.1± 3.2high

Blocks

Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
1.1± 0.9high
Oso IghodaroPHX
0.8± 0.7high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high
Toumani CamaraPOR
1.4± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

POR

league avg

PHX

53.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.7%

45.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

45.5%

114.6

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

25.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

16.2

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR