NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8CHI

HOU

43-28

124132

CHI

29-42

NBAMon, Mar 23FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasHOU -8.5

HOU · top performer

Alperen Sengun

C · #28

36.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Collin Sexton

G · #2

21.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 1:21

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	40	40	15-23	5-10	5-8	-18	7	5
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	34	6	2-10	1-7	1-1	0	5	1
A. SengunC · #28	37	33	16-19	1-2	0-3	-6	13	10
A. ThompsonG · #1	39	23	8-12	0-1	7-9	-12	3	1
R. SheppardG · #15	36	13	5-17	3-14	—	-17	5	6
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	8	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	2	0
J. TateF · #8	3	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
T. EasonF · #17	14	4	1-5	0-2	2-3	+1	3	1
C. CapelaC · #30	4	2	1-1	—	—	-8	1	0
A. HolidayG · #0	21	3	1-3	1-3	—	+22	1	3
J. OkogieG · #20	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	1	0
Team		124	49-92	11-41	15-24		41	27
DNP: J. Green, I. Crawford

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SmithF · #25	26	15	6-8	3-5	—	+17	6	2
M. BuzelisF · #14	35	23	8-16	5-9	2-2	+7	4	1
N. RichardsC · #13	26	11	3-7	1-2	4-6	+2	8	0
T. JonesG · #30	28	15	6-11	0-1	3-4	+13	5	6
J. GiddeyG · #3	39	15	4-14	3-8	4-4	+7	7	13
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #44	19	2	1-2	0-1	—	-4	1	0
L. MillerF · #11	23	17	7-11	2-3	1-2	+4	9	3
C. SextonG · #2	26	25	6-14	4-7	9-10	+2	4	2
R. DillinghamG · #7	18	9	4-7	1-2	—	-8	1	3
Team		132	45-90	19-38	23-28		45	30
DNP: G. Yabusele, I. Okoro, L. Olbrich

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

49-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-90

FG %

11-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

19-38

15-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 14

CHI113@

HOU119

Mar 24

HOU124@

CHI132today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-37579%

CHI+29525%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -8.5↗SpreadBet HOU -8.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat HOU 132-124. C. Sexton paced them with 25 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST. CHI outscored the other side 41-21 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 93% of pts

Starters(5)

115 PTS · 33 REB · 23 AST

GS 91

Bench(6)

9 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST

GS 8

CHIstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 30 REB · 22 AST

GS 66

Bench(4)

53 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST

GS 44

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI1st Quarter · 3:09 · 16-27

+17pp→ 71% WP

Clint Capela · shooting foul

HOU4th Quarter · 2:59 · 114-114

+18pp→ 64% WP

Leonard Miller · shooting foul

CHI4th Quarter · 1:21 · 118-121

+19pp→ 71% WP

Josh Giddey · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	21	27	39	37	124
CHI	41	24	30	37	132

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · CHI won 1

Durant 9

Sexton 17

Sengun 10

Dillingham 7

Durant 12

Buzelis 8

Durant 15

Sengun 12

HOU

CHI

Shooting comparison

HOU

CHI

53%

49-92

50%

45-90

27%

11-41

3PT

50%

19-38

63%

15-24

82%

23-28

Play-by-play · 509 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 124·CHI 132
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 124·CHI 132
Q4·3.3
Matas Buzelis defensive rebound
HOU 124·CHI 132
Q4·3.3
Kevin Durant misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
HOU 124·CHI 132
Q4·7.9
Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 124·CHI 132
Q4·7.9
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Amen Thompson
·
HOU 124·CHI 131
Q4·7.9
Collin Sexton makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 124·CHI 131
Q4·7.9
Amen Thompson personal take foul
HOU 124·CHI 130
+1pp
Q4·9.1
Collin Sexton enters the game for Leonard Miller
·
HOU 124·CHI 130
Q4·9.1
HOU 124·CHI 130
−1pp
Q4·9.1
Josh Giddey makes technical free throwBIG MOMENT
HOU 124·CHI 130
+7pp
Q4·9.1
technical foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 124·CHI 129
−6pp
Q4·9.1
Bulls Full timeout
HOU 124·CHI 129
Q4·9.1
Amen Thompson enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
HOU 124·CHI 129
Q4·9.1
Kevin Durant offensive foul turnover
HOU 124·CHI 129
Q4·9.1
Kevin Durant offensive foul
HOU 124·CHI 129
+3pp
Q4·10.2
Rockets Full timeout
HOU 124·CHI 129
Q4·10.2
Matas Buzelis makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
HOU 124·CHI 129
+14pp
Q4·30.7
(00:30.7) [Rockets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
HOU 124·CHI 127
−5pp
Q4·30.7
Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Aaron Holiday assists)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 124·CHI 127
−8pp
Q4·37.8
Jalen Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 121·CHI 127
+12pp
Q4·57.1
Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 121·CHI 124
−10pp
Q4·1:00
Aaron Holiday enters the game for Amen Thompson
·
HOU 118·CHI 124
Q4·1:00
Rockets Full timeout
HOU 118·CHI 124
Q4·1:00
Matas Buzelis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Smith assists)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 118·CHI 124
+11pp
Q4·1:06
Matas Buzelis defensive rebound
HOU 118·CHI 121
+3pp
Q4·1:10
Reed Sheppard misses 28-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
HOU 118·CHI 121
+7pp
Q4·1:21
Josh Giddey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 118·CHI 121
+20pp
Q4·1:23
Jalen Smith offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
HOU 118·CHI 118
+7pp
Q4·1:25
Josh Giddey misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
HOU 118·CHI 118
−7pp

Betting line

HOU -8.5·O/U 233.5·HOU -375/CHI +295

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hicago Bulls held off Houston Rockets, 132–124.

CHI +8.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 22.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Josh GiddeyCHI · G
TOUCHES94.199
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHI vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high
Alperen SengunHOU
19.1± 6.9high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high
Collin SextonCHI
1.6± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

CHI

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.7%

47.4%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.9%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

116.3

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.5

14.3

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR