NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16ATL

33-38

110126

ATL

39-32

NBASat, Mar 21FinalSeriesATL wins series 2-0VegasATL -7.5

GS · top performer

Nate Williams

G · #19

15.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Dyson Daniels

G · #5

31.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 16pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:43

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	26	13	4-8	2-6	3-4	-21	6	4
G. SantosF · #15	24	2	0-2	—	2-4	-29	2	6
Q. PostC · #21	14	8	3-6	2-5	—	-1	3	1
D. MeltonG · #8	22	20	7-15	2-7	4-4	-17	2	4
B. PodziemskiG · #2	24	5	2-6	0-4	1-1	-20	0	1
Bench
M. LeonsF · #33	9	2	1-2	—	—	+7	1	0
O. YurtsevenC · #77	15	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	+4	4	1
N. WilliamsG · #19	29	19	8-9	2-2	1-2	+1	4	2
L. CryerG · #18	19	12	4-11	4-9	—	+6	2	0
P. SpencerG · #61	26	18	8-14	2-4	—	+2	0	3
W. RichardG · #3	31	9	4-7	1-4	—	-12	5	1
Team		110	41-82	15-42	13-17		29	23
DNP: K. Porzingis, G. Payton II, M. Moody

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	26	6	3-7	0-3	—	+32	5	5
M. GueyeF · #18	26	16	6-6	4-4	—	+22	10	2
C. McCollumG · #3	29	23	10-16	1-5	2-4	+30	3	5
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	27	17	4-9	2-6	7-7	+24	2	1
D. DanielsG · #5	32	28	12-17	2-5	2-2	+35	7	6
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	18	8	4-7	0-1	—	-10	3	4
J. KumingaF · #0	22	2	1-9	0-3	—	-6	4	2
Z. RisacherF · #10	23	17	5-6	3-4	4-5	-21	2	0
J. LandaleC · #31	19	7	3-7	1-4	—	-7	1	1
B. HieldG · #8	4	0	0-3	0-3	—	-7	3	0
G. VincentG · #4	13	2	0-2	0-2	2-2	-12	1	2
Team		126	48-89	13-40	17-20		41	28
DNP: K. Wallace, C. Houstan

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

41-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-89

FG %

15-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-40

13-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL wins series 2-0

Jan 12

ATL124@

GS111

Mar 22

GS110@

ATL126today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS+25029%

ATL-31076%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -7.5↗SpreadBet ATL -7.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat GS 126-110. D. Daniels paced them with 28 PTS, 7 REB, 6 AST. ATL outscored the other side 39-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 44% of pts

Starters(5)

48 PTS · 13 REB · 16 AST

GS 33

Bench(6)

62 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST

GS 43

ATLstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 27 REB · 19 AST

GS 87

Bench(6)

36 PTS · 14 REB · 9 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL2nd Quarter · 5:02 · 52-47

+7pp→ 48% WP

Mouhamed Gueye · makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)

ATL2nd Quarter · 2:30 · 54-53

+7pp→ 60% WP

Mouhamed Gueye · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)

GS2nd Quarter · 3:43 · 54-50

+16pp→ 46% WP

Will Richard · lost ball turnover (Nickeil Alexander-Walker steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	36	25	20	29	110
ATL	35	28	39	24	126

Period scoring

GS won 2 · ATL won 2

Post 8

Daniels 15

Melton 9

Risacher 7

Melton 4

Alexander-Walker 18

Williams 9

Leons 22

ATL

Shooting comparison

ATL

50%

41-82

54%

48-89

36%

15-42

3PT

33%

13-40

76%

13-17

85%

17-20

Play-by-play · 483 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 110·ATL 126
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 110·ATL 126
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
GS 110·ATL 126
Q4·3.5
Buddy Hield defensive rebound
GS 110·ATL 126
Q4·4.5
Mouhamed Gueye blocks LJ Cryer 's 7-foot driving floating jump shot
·
GS 110·ATL 126
Q4·15.2
LJ Cryer defensive rebound
GS 110·ATL 126
Q4·18.7
Buddy Hield misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 110·ATL 126
Q4·27.3
Gabe Vincent defensive rebound
GS 110·ATL 126
Q4·30.8
LJ Cryer misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
GS 110·ATL 126
Q4·36.9
Warriors offensive team rebound
GS 110·ATL 126
Q4·37.7
Mouhamed Gueye blocks Nate Williams 's 2-foot running layup
·
GS 110·ATL 126
Q4·41.7
Nate Williams defensive rebound
GS 110·ATL 126
Q4·44.9
Gabe Vincent misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 110·ATL 126
Q4·56.3
Malevy Leons makes running dunk
GS 110·ATL 126
Q4·58.3
Buddy Hield lost ball turnover (Malevy Leons steals)
·
GS 108·ATL 126
Q4·1:10
Pat Spencer makes 9-foot two point shot
GS 108·ATL 126
Q4·1:18
Omer Yurtseven defensive rebound
GS 106·ATL 126
Q4·1:21
Buddy Hield misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 106·ATL 126
Q4·1:30
LJ Cryer makes 25-foot three pointer
GS 106·ATL 126
Q4·1:48
Omer Yurtseven defensive rebound
GS 103·ATL 126
Q4·1:51
Buddy Hield misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 103·ATL 126
Q4·1:58
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
GS 103·ATL 126
Q4·2:02
Malevy Leons misses 10-foot two point shot
GS 103·ATL 126
Q4·2:18
Nate Williams defensive rebound
GS 103·ATL 126
Q4·2:20
Corey Kispert misses driving layup
GS 103·ATL 126
Q4·2:36
Buddy Hield defensive rebound
GS 103·ATL 126
Q4·2:37
Mouhamed Gueye blocks Omer Yurtseven's two point shot
·
GS 103·ATL 126
Q4·2:37
Omer Yurtseven offensive rebound
GS 103·ATL 126
Q4·2:41
LJ Cryer misses driving layup
GS 103·ATL 126
Q4·2:50
Buddy Hield bad pass turnover (Malevy Leons steals)
·
GS 103·ATL 126

Betting line

ATL -7.5·O/U 228.5·GS +250/ATL -310

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off Golden State Warriors, 126–110.

ATL -7.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593
De'Anthony MeltonGS · G
DEFL2.992
Quinten PostGS · C
CONT6.388

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

ATL

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

46.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.2%

114.5

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

28.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR