NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LAL

LAL

46-25

105104

ORL

38-32

NBASat, Mar 21FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasLAL -2.5

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

23.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

13.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 88pp · 4th Quarter · 1.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	34	12	5-13	0-2	2-2	+4	6	4
D. AytonC · #5	29	9	3-4	—	3-6	+2	12	1
M. SmartG · #36	31	2	0-3	0-2	2-2	+1	1	1
L. DoncicG · #77	38	33	12-30	3-13	6-9	+10	5	8
A. ReavesG · #15	40	26	10-20	2-8	4-4	+8	7	5
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	15	2	1-2	—	—	-3	1	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	14	0	0-5	0-3	—	-9	1	0
J. HayesC · #11	19	8	3-3	—	2-6	-2	7	0
L. KennardG · #10	20	13	5-7	3-4	—	-6	3	0
Team		105	39-87	8-32	19-29		43	19
DNP: J. Vanderbilt, D. Timme, D. Knecht, B. James

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	36	16	4-14	0-3	8-8	-18	5	6
T. da SilvaF · #23	21	12	4-6	2-3	2-2	-9	2	0
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	29	13	5-8	1-1	2-2	-11	9	2
D. BaneG · #3	38	12	4-14	1-6	3-3	-10	4	5
J. SuggsG · #4	34	14	5-9	2-6	2-2	-20	3	6
Bench
J. CainF · #8	23	10	4-10	1-6	1-2	+11	5	1
N. PendaF · #93	13	2	1-3	—	—	+18	3	0
G. BitadzeC · #35	18	9	3-3	—	3-4	+9	7	5
J. CarterG · #2	21	13	5-13	3-11	—	+18	2	1
J. HowardG · #13	7	3	1-3	1-1	—	+7	2	1
Team		104	36-83	11-37	21-23		42	27
DNP: M. Wagner, J. Richardson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

39-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-83

FG %

8-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-37

19-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 25

ORL110@

LAL109

Mar 21

LAL105@

ORL104today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL-15561%

ORL+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -2.5↗SpreadBet LAL -2.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat ORL 105-104. L. Doncic paced them with 33 PTS, 5 REB, 8 AST. ORL outscored the other side 35-25 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 31 REB · 19 AST

GS 65

Bench(4)

23 PTS · 12 REB · 0 AST

GS 18

ORLstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 23 REB · 19 AST

GS 52

Bench(5)

37 PTS · 19 REB · 8 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL1st Quarter · 1:39 · 37-23

+14pp→ 88% WP

Goga Bitadze · bad pass turnover (Luka Doncic steals)

ORL4th Quarter · 5.5 · 102-104

+14pp→ 91% WP

Deandre Ayton · misses free throw 2 of 2

LAL4th Quarter · 1.0 · 105-104

+88pp→ 96% WP

Luke Kennard · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	37	25	20	23	105
ORL	30	35	22	17	104

Period scoring

LAL won 2 · ORL won 2

Doncic 16

Tristan 10

Doncic 8

Carter 17

Doncic 7

James 10

Reaves 11

Banchero 8

LAL

ORL

Shooting comparison

LAL

ORL

45%

39-87

43%

36-83

25%

8-32

3PT

30%

11-37

66%

19-29

91%

21-23

Play-by-play · 497 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 105·ORL 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 105·ORL 104
Q4·0.0
Magic offensive team rebound
LAL 105·ORL 104
Q4·0.0
Jalen Suggs misses heave jump shot
LAL 105·ORL 104
−5pp
Q4·1.0
Luke Kennard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAL 105·ORL 104
−88pp
Q4·2.6
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 102·ORL 104
Q4·2.6
Lakers offensive team rebound
LAL 102·ORL 104
−3pp
Q4·2.6
Paolo Banchero blocks LeBron James 's 2-foot layup
· ·
LAL 102·ORL 104
+3pp
Q4·4.7
Luke Kennard enters the game for Jake LaRavia
·
LAL 102·ORL 104
Q4·4.7
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 102·ORL 104
Q4·4.7
(00:04.7) [Magic] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Magic] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
LAL 102·ORL 104
+7pp
Q4·4.7
Magic Coach's Challenge
LAL 102·ORL 104
Q4·4.7
Jalen Suggs out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
LAL 102·ORL 104
−6pp
Q4·5.2
Marcus Smart enters the game for Jaxson Hayes
·
LAL 102·ORL 104
Q4·5.2
Jake LaRavia enters the game for Deandre Ayton
·
LAL 102·ORL 104
Q4·5.2
Tristan da Silva enters the game for Goga Bitadze
·
LAL 102·ORL 104
Q4·5.2
Magic Full timeout
LAL 102·ORL 104
Q4·5.2
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
·
LAL 102·ORL 104
+0.5pp
Q4·5.5
Deandre Ayton misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAL 102·ORL 104
+14pp
Q4·5.5
Jaxson Hayes enters the game for Marcus Smart
·
LAL 102·ORL 104
Q4·5.5
Goga Bitadze enters the game for Tristan da Silva
·
LAL 102·ORL 104
Q4·5.5
Deandre Ayton makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 102·ORL 104
−2pp
Q4·5.5
Tristan da Silva personal foulBIG MOMENT
LAL 101·ORL 104
−12pp
Q4·5.5
Deandre Ayton offensive rebound
LAL 101·ORL 104
+0.5pp
Q4·9.5
Austin Reaves misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LAL 101·ORL 104
+9pp
Q4·15.6
LeBron James defensive rebound
·
LAL 101·ORL 104
−1pp
Q4·18.5
Desmond Bane misses 22-foot step back jumpshot
LAL 101·ORL 104
−3pp
Q4·42.4
Austin Reaves makes driving layup
LAL 101·ORL 104
−3pp
Q4·50.0
Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 99·ORL 104
−4pp
Q4·50.0
Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 99·ORL 103
+1pp

Betting line

LAL -2.5·O/U 234.5·LAL -155/ORL +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers went into Orlando Magic and beat them, 105–104. It came down to the final possession.

ORL +2.5 cashed (LAL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 234.5 by 25.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Jaxson HayesLAL · C
TS%75.899+
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

ORL

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

114.8

PPG

114.9

114.2

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.0

14.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR