NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14DET

33-37

101115

DET

51-19

NBAFri, Mar 20FinalSeriesDET wins series 2-0VegasDET -6.5

GS · top performer

Gary Payton II

G · #0

12.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Daniss Jenkins

G · #24

22.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:35

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	22	0	0-2	0-2	—	-15	5	6
G. SantosF · #15	30	13	4-10	1-4	4-4	-3	5	5
K. PorzingisC · #7	11	5	1-5	1-4	2-2	-6	3	0
D. MeltonG · #8	23	14	5-14	2-6	2-3	-21	4	0
B. PodziemskiG · #2	30	15	4-10	2-4	5-6	-6	6	3
Bench
M. LeonsF · #33	11	5	2-3	1-1	—	-8	1	1
O. YurtsevenC · #77	21	8	3-7	—	2-6	+2	6	2
G. Payton IIG · #0	25	14	6-8	1-2	1-2	-3	3	3
L. CryerG · #18	16	10	3-6	3-5	1-1	+2	0	1
P. SpencerG · #61	23	6	3-6	0-3	—	-8	4	2
W. RichardG · #3	28	11	4-5	1-2	2-2	-4	1	0
Team		101	35-76	12-33	19-26		38	23
DNP: Q. Post, M. Moody

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	25	13	6-10	1-1	—	+29	6	5
D. RobinsonF · #55	29	11	4-9	2-6	1-2	+37	1	2
J. DurenC · #0	21	23	8-12	—	7-9	+14	6	1
A. ThompsonG · #9	25	8	4-10	0-1	0-2	+17	3	4
D. JenkinsG · #24	38	22	7-12	1-3	7-7	+13	7	8
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	23	15	6-12	0-3	3-6	+6	6	3
T. SmithF · #35	4	2	1-1	—	—	-6	0	1
R. Holland IIF · #5	22	11	5-6	0-1	1-2	-26	1	0
J. GreenG · #31	20	5	2-3	1-2	—	-14	3	0
C. LeVertG · #8	21	5	2-9	0-3	1-1	+1	2	5
C. LanierG · #20	12	0	0-2	0-1	—	-1	0	0
Team		115	45-86	5-21	20-29		35	29
DNP: K. Huerter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

DET

Home

35-76

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-86

FG %

12-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-21

19-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET wins series 2-0

Jan 31

DET131@

GS124

Mar 20

GS101@

DET115today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS+19534%

DET-23870%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -6.5↗SpreadBet DET -6.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat GS 115-101. D. Jenkins led with 22 PTS, 7 REB, 8 AST. DET outscored the other side 36-24 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 47% of pts

Starters(5)

47 PTS · 23 REB · 14 AST

GS 29

Bench(6)

54 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 40

DETstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 23 REB · 20 AST

GS 68

Bench(6)

38 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST

GS 33

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET2nd Quarter · 8:35 · 38-34

+9pp→ 55% WP

Daniss Jenkins · makes technical free throw

GS2nd Quarter · 8:05 · 43-34

+6pp→ 61% WP

De'Anthony Melton · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)

DET2nd Quarter · 1:42 · 48-51

+7pp→ 74% WP

Brandin Podziemski · misses two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	26	24	23	28	101
DET	21	36	30	28	115

Period scoring

GS won 1 · DET won 2

Melton 9

Duren 6

Cryer 7

Robinson 10

Santos 9

Duren 6

Yurtseven 8

Jenkins 27

DET

Shooting comparison

DET

46%

35-76

52%

45-86

36%

12-33

3PT

24%

5-21

73%

19-26

69%

20-29

Play-by-play · 497 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 101·DET 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 101·DET 115
Q4·2.1
shot clock turnover
GS 101·DET 115
Q4·26.2
Will Richard makes running layup (Gary Payton II assists)
·
GS 101·DET 115
Q4·29.0
Daniss Jenkins lost ball turnover (Will Richard steals)
·
GS 99·DET 115
Q4·48.6
Gary Payton II makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Pat Spencer assists)
·
GS 99·DET 115
Q4·50.4
Pat Spencer offensive rebound
GS 97·DET 115
Q4·52.5
Will Richard misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS 97·DET 115
Q4·1:10
Warriors defensive team rebound
GS 97·DET 115
Q4·1:11
Chaz Lanier misses 26-foot three point jumper
GS 97·DET 115
Q4·1:34
Omer Yurtseven makes 4-foot two point shot
GS 97·DET 115
Q4·1:36
Omer Yurtseven offensive rebound
GS 95·DET 115
Q4·1:39
Gary Payton II misses free throw 2 of 2
GS 95·DET 115
Q4·1:39
Gary Payton II makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 95·DET 115
Q4·1:39
Tolu Smith shooting foul
GS 94·DET 115
Q4·1:48
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 94·DET 115
Q4·1:48
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 94·DET 114
Q4·1:48
LJ Cryer enters the game for Gui Santos
·
GS 94·DET 113
Q4·1:48
(01:48) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
GS 94·DET 113
Q4·1:48
Pistons Full timeout
GS 94·DET 113
Q4·1:48
Gary Payton II shooting foul
GS 94·DET 113
Q4·2:10
Omer Yurtseven makes 2-foot two point shot (Gui Santos assists)
·
GS 94·DET 113
Q4·2:25
Daniss Jenkins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tolu Smith assists)
·
GS 92·DET 113
Q4·2:48
Will Richard makes 2-foot reverse layup (Gui Santos assists)
·
GS 92·DET 110
Q4·3:01
Tolu Smith makes 1-foot two point shot
GS 90·DET 110
Q4·3:27
Gary Payton II makes driving dunk
GS 90·DET 108
Q4·3:30
Daniss Jenkins lost ball turnover (Gary Payton II steals)
·
GS 88·DET 108
Q4·3:36
Tolu Smith enters the game for Paul Reed
·
GS 88·DET 108
Q4·3:36
Pistons defensive team rebound
GS 88·DET 108
Q4·3:38
Pat Spencer misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
GS 88·DET 108

Betting line

DET -6.5·O/U 219.5·GS +195/DET -238

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons held off Golden State Warriors, 115–101.

DET -6.5 cashed (won by 14). Total stayed UNDER 219.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kristaps PorzingisGS · C
CONT9.498
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593
De'Anthony MeltonGS · G
DEFL2.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
20.4± 6.0high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Ausar ThompsonDET
7.1± 3.2high
Tobias HarrisDET
6.4± 1.8high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
4.8± 1.7high

Blocks

Ausar ThompsonDET
1.5± 1.3high
Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Ausar ThompsonDET
2.0± 1.8high
De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

DET

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

46.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

114.5

PPG

114.9

▶

115.9

28.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.0

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR