NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+36MIN

UTAH

20-49

111147

MIN

43-27

NBAWed, Mar 18FinalSeriesMIN wins series 3-1VegasMIN -12.5

UTAH · top performer

Brice Sensabaugh

F · #28

24.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Ayo Dosunmu

G · #13

24.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowUTAH ↔ MIN

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. FilipowskiF · #22	23	7	2-6	1-3	2-4	-21	3	4
C. WilliamsF · #5	25	7	3-6	1-2	—	-9	5	2
B. SensabaughF · #28	37	41	17-31	4-9	3-4	-21	4	3
I. CollierG · #8	28	14	4-9	0-2	6-7	-26	3	6
A. BaileyG · #19	25	17	6-13	5-10	—	-14	2	2
Bench
K. LoveF · #42	15	5	1-6	1-5	2-2	-4	4	1
O. TshiebweC · #34	10	5	2-4	—	1-2	-11	4	0
J. KoncharG · #55	13	3	1-2	0-1	1-2	-17	5	1
E. HarklessG · #16	20	8	3-9	1-4	1-3	-10	6	3
A. GarciaG · #0	24	4	1-5	0-2	2-2	-24	8	3
B. MbengG · #21	20	0	0-2	0-1	—	-23	2	1
Team		111	40-93	13-39	18-26		46	26
DNP: S. Mykhailiuk

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	27	21	7-10	1-2	6-7	+13	1	8
J. McDanielsF · #3	26	17	7-15	3-7	—	+11	2	3
R. GobertC · #27	29	21	9-12	—	3-4	+28	12	0
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	26	9	3-7	3-6	—	+14	3	7
A. DosunmuG · #13	27	23	7-13	3-5	6-7	+26	9	6
Bench
J. InglesF · #7	7	7	3-4	1-2	—	+2	1	0
K. AndersonF · #12	22	8	3-6	0-1	2-2	+19	3	6
J. BeringerF · #19	9	2	1-4	—	—	+3	7	0
M. ConleyG · #10	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	0	4
J. ClarkG · #22	10	9	3-7	2-4	1-1	+3	2	0
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	20	8	2-4	2-4	2-4	+29	3	0
B. HylandG · #8	25	18	6-12	3-7	3-3	+30	3	2
Z. PullinG · #15	5	4	1-1	—	2-2	0	0	3
Team		147	52-96	18-39	25-30		46	39

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

40-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

52-96

FG %

13-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-39

18-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN wins series 3-1

Nov 8

UTAH97@

MIN137

Nov 11

MIN120@

UTAH113

Jan 21

MIN122@

UTAH127

Mar 19

UTAH111@

MIN147today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

231.5

Standard · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+55015%

MIN-80089%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -12.5↗SpreadBet MIN -12.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

231.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat UTAH 147-111. A. Dosunmu led with 23 PTS, 9 REB, 6 AST. MIN outscored the other side 43-31 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 17 REB · 17 AST

GS 58

Bench(6)

25 PTS · 29 REB · 9 AST

GS 21

MINstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

91 PTS · 27 REB · 24 AST

GS 90

Bench(8)

56 PTS · 19 REB · 15 AST

GS 47

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	31	27	26	27	111
MIN	43	29	38	37	147

Period scoring

UTAH won 0 · MIN won 4

Sensabaugh 13

Randle 13

Sensabaugh 10

McDaniels 10

Collier 7

Dosunmu 9

Sensabaugh 11

Clark 9

UTAH

MIN

Shooting comparison

UTAH

MIN

43%

40-93

54%

52-96

33%

13-39

3PT

46%

18-39

69%

18-26

83%

25-30

Play-by-play · 519 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 111·MIN 147
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 111·MIN 147
Q4·4.2
shot clock turnover
UTAH 111·MIN 147
Q4·29.2
Joe Ingles makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Zyon Pullin assists)
·
UTAH 111·MIN 147
Q4·46.9
Brice Sensabaugh makes two point shot
UTAH 111·MIN 144
Q4·49.5
Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound
UTAH 109·MIN 144
Q4·52.5
Jaylen Clark misses 22-foot three point jumper
UTAH 109·MIN 144
Q4·1:04
Joan Beringer defensive rebound
UTAH 109·MIN 144
Q4·1:06
Elijah Harkless misses two point shot
UTAH 109·MIN 144
Q4·1:07
Elijah Harkless offensive rebound
UTAH 109·MIN 144
Q4·1:11
Oscar Tshiebwe misses free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 109·MIN 144
Q4·1:11
Oscar Tshiebwe makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 109·MIN 144
Q4·1:11
Joan Beringer shooting foul
UTAH 108·MIN 144
Q4·1:24
Zyon Pullin makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 108·MIN 144
Q4·1:24
Zyon Pullin makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 108·MIN 143
Q4·1:24
Bez Mbeng shooting foul
UTAH 108·MIN 142
Q4·1:27
Brice Sensabaugh bad pass turnover (Zyon Pullin steals)
·
UTAH 108·MIN 142
Q4·1:37
Zyon Pullin makes layup (Mike Conley assists)
·
UTAH 108·MIN 142
Q4·1:46
Andersson Garcia makes 2-foot dunk (Bez Mbeng assists)
·
UTAH 108·MIN 140
Q4·1:49
Zyon Pullin bad pass turnover (Elijah Harkless steals)
·
UTAH 106·MIN 140
Q4·1:53
Brice Sensabaugh makes 22-foot three point jumper (Elijah Harkless assists)
·
UTAH 106·MIN 140
Q4·2:08
Jaylen Clark makes 24-foot three point jumper (Zyon Pullin assists)
·
UTAH 103·MIN 140
Q4·2:24
Brice Sensabaugh makes 2-foot running dunk (Elijah Harkless assists)
·
UTAH 103·MIN 137
Q4·2:27
Joe Ingles bad pass turnover (Elijah Harkless steals)
·
UTAH 101·MIN 137
Q4·2:51
Joan Beringer defensive rebound
UTAH 101·MIN 137
Q4·2:53
Brice Sensabaugh misses free throw 1 of 1
UTAH 101·MIN 137
Q4·2:53
Timberwolves Full timeout
UTAH 101·MIN 137
Q4·2:53
Zyon Pullin shooting foul
UTAH 101·MIN 137
Q4·2:53
Brice Sensabaugh makes running layup
UTAH 101·MIN 137
Q4·2:57
Zyon Pullin bad pass turnover (Brice Sensabaugh steals)
·
UTAH 99·MIN 137

Betting line

MIN -12.5·O/U 231.5·UTAH +550/MIN -800

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves held off Utah Jazz, 147–111. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIN -12.5 cashed (won by 36). Total cleared the 231.5 OVER by 26.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Joan BeringerMIN · F
TS%68.397
Isaiah CollierUTAH · G
DRIVES11.592
John KoncharUTAH · G
DEFL2.891
Oscar TshiebweUTAH · C
TS%63.388

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · UTAH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs UTAH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Walker KesslerUTAH
10.7± 2.2low
Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium

Blocks

Walker KesslerUTAH
1.8± 2.5low
Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
Elijah HarklessUTAH
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

MIN

53.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.6%

117.6

PPG

114.9

116.8

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR