NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9NY

43-25

10192

IND

15-52

NBAFri, Mar 13FinalSeriesNY leads series 2-1VegasNY -12.5

NY · top performer

Jalen Brunson

G · #11

21.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Jarace Walker

F · #5

12.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 6:19

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	34	25	8-16	2-4	7-9	+13	8	5
M. RobinsonC · #23	31	12	6-10	—	—	+20	22	0
M. BridgesG · #25	30	11	4-9	1-4	2-3	+11	4	0
L. ShametG · #44	37	9	2-7	2-7	3-5	+15	5	0
J. BrunsonG · #11	37	29	11-25	0-3	7-8	+12	5	9
Bench
P. DadietF · #4	6	3	1-3	1-2	—	-3	1	0
M. DiawaraF · #51	20	4	2-9	0-3	—	-9	5	1
A. HukportiC · #55	14	0	—	—	—	-8	1	1
J. ClarksonG · #00	19	8	3-9	2-5	—	-4	2	2
J. AlvaradoG · #5	13	0	—	—	—	-2	0	2
Team		101	37-88	8-28	19-25		53	20
DNP: T. Jemison III, D. Jones, K. McCullar Jr., T. Kolek

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. WalkerF · #5	38	18	6-14	3-9	3-4	0	9	3
I. ZubacC · #40	29	11	5-9	—	1-2	-12	8	1
A. NembhardG · #2	32	8	3-14	0-3	2-2	-14	5	7
A. NesmithG · #23	34	12	5-13	1-5	1-1	-17	2	2
K. BrownG · #24	30	8	2-7	0-3	4-5	+4	7	0
Bench
O. ToppinF · #1	16	9	3-6	3-6	—	-12	4	1
J. HuffC · #32	16	9	3-7	2-6	1-1	+6	4	0
M. PotterC · #11	4	2	1-2	0-1	—	-1	1	0
T.J. McConnellG · #9	20	10	5-9	—	—	+1	3	6
B. SheppardG · #26	21	5	2-8	1-5	—	0	3	1
Team		92	35-89	10-38	12-15		46	21
DNP: K. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

IND

Home

37-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-89

FG %

8-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-38

19-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY leads series 2-1

Dec 19

NY114@

IND113

Feb 11

IND137@

NY134

Mar 13

NY101@

IND92today

Mar 17

IND110@

NY136

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-67587%

IND+49017%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -12.5↗SpreadBet NY -12.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat IND 101-92. J. Brunson paced them with 29 PTS, 5 REB, 9 AST. IND outscored the other side 29-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 44 REB · 14 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

15 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST

GS 5

INDstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 31 REB · 13 AST

GS 39

Bench(5)

35 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND4th Quarter · 6:34 · 85-83

+10pp→ 39% WP

OG Anunoby · personal foul

NY4th Quarter · 6:19 · 85-83

+13pp→ 74% WP

Ben Sheppard · misses 23-foot three point jumper

IND4th Quarter · 3:54 · 88-86

+9pp→ 23% WP

Jarace Walker · makes 23-foot running jump shot (Aaron Nesmith assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	24	32	20	25	101
IND	21	24	29	18	92

Period scoring

NY won 3 · IND won 1

Brunson 11

Toppin 6

Brunson 12

Nembhard 6

Shamet 4

Huff 9

Anunoby 10

Walker 7

IND

Shooting comparison

IND

42%

37-88

39%

35-89

29%

8-28

3PT

26%

10-38

76%

19-25

80%

12-15

Play-by-play · 497 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 101·IND 92
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 101·IND 92
Q4·10.5
shot clock turnover
NY 101·IND 92
Q4·34.8
Jarace Walker makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot
NY 101·IND 92
Q4·45.6
Mikal Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 101·IND 90
Q4·45.6
Pacers Full timeout
NY 100·IND 90
Q4·45.6
Jordan Clarkson enters the game for Mitchell Robinson
·
NY 100·IND 90
Q4·45.6
Kobe Brown enters the game for Aaron Nesmith
·
NY 100·IND 90
Q4·45.6
Micah Potter enters the game for Andrew Nembhard
·
NY 100·IND 90
Q4·45.6
Mikal Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 100·IND 90
Q4·45.6
Jay Huff personal take foul
NY 99·IND 90
Q4·52.0
Landry Shamet defensive rebound
NY 99·IND 90
Q4·54.2
Jay Huff misses 27-foot three point jumper
NY 99·IND 90
−0.5pp
Q4·1:01
OG Anunoby lost ball turnover (Jarace Walker steals)
·
NY 99·IND 90
+0.5pp
Q4·1:09
Mitchell Robinson defensive rebound
NY 99·IND 90
Q4·1:12
Aaron Nesmith misses driving floating jump shot
NY 99·IND 90
−0.6pp
Q4·1:18
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 99·IND 90
+0.5pp
Q4·1:18
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 98·IND 90
Q4·1:18
Aaron Nesmith personal foul
NY 97·IND 90
−1pp
Q4·1:20
Landry Shamet defensive rebound
NY 97·IND 90
−0.5pp
Q4·1:23
Aaron Nesmith misses 22-foot three point jumper
NY 97·IND 90
−2pp
Q4·1:26
Jalen Brunson bad pass turnover (Aaron Nesmith steals)
·
NY 97·IND 90
+2pp
Q4·1:31
Aaron Nesmith makes driving layup (Andrew Nembhard assists)
·
NY 97·IND 90
+0.8pp
Q4·1:39
Ben Sheppard enters the game for T.J. McConnell
·
NY 97·IND 88
Q4·1:39
Jay Huff enters the game for Ivica Zubac
·
NY 97·IND 88
Q4·1:39
Pacers Full timeout
NY 97·IND 88
Q4·1:39
OG Anunoby makes running layup (Jalen Brunson assists)
·
NY 97·IND 88
−1pp
Q4·1:43
Jalen Brunson defensive rebound
NY 95·IND 88
−0.5pp
Q4·1:45
T.J. McConnell misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
NY 95·IND 88
−2pp
Q4·1:57
Mikal Bridges makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 95·IND 88
−6pp

Betting line

NY -12.5·O/U 228.5·NY -675/IND +490

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 101–92.

IND +12.5 cashed (NY won by 9). Total stayed UNDER 228.5 by 35.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Ivica ZubacIND · C
CONT9.298
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
OG AnunobyNY
18.6± 7.0high

Rebounds

Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Mitchell RobinsonNY
6.7± 2.5high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.0± 1.4medium
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium
Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

IND

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.8%

116.4

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.7

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR