GS
32-31
OKC
50-15
GS · top performer
Gui Santos
F · #15
22
Pts
11
Reb
3
Ast
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
27
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 2:02
NBA · Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 16 | 6-10 | 4-6 | — | 0 | 4 | 5 | |
| 37 | 22 | 8-19 | 2-9 | 4-6 | -4 | 11 | 3 | |
| 29 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-3 | — | -9 | 5 | 4 | |
| 25 | 9 | 4-6 | 1-2 | — | -10 | 1 | 1 | |
| 39 | 17 | 6-17 | 3-10 | 2-2 | -6 | 6 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 6 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | +3 | 1 | 2 | |
| 23 | 9 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 3-6 | +6 | 5 | 5 | |
| 22 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-2 | -2 | 12 | 1 | |
| 9 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | -12 | 0 | 1 | |
| 17 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | — | -1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 97 | 36-88 | 14-45 | 11-18 | 47 | 28 | ||
| DNP: Q. Post, D. Melton, M. Moody, W. Richard | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 9 | 3-7 | 3-6 | — | -1 | 14 | 4 | |
| 35 | 27 | 6-15 | 1-4 | 14-15 | +3 | 5 | 5 | |
| 35 | 18 | 5-12 | 2-7 | 6-6 | +7 | 4 | 3 | |
| 34 | 8 | 3-10 | 2-7 | — | +6 | 5 | 2 | |
| 31 | 9 | 4-8 | 1-3 | — | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +9 | 1 | 2 | |
| 19 | 13 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 1-1 | +2 | 7 | 1 | |
| 29 | 9 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 2-2 | +8 | 4 | 4 | |
| 13 | 9 | 3-7 | 3-6 | — | +1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 104 | 33-78 | 15-42 | 23-24 | 42 | 24 | ||
| DNP: P. Sandfort, A. Caruso, N. Topic | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
42
28
Ast
24
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
OKC
Home
36-88
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
33-78
41
FG %
42
14-45
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-42
11-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-24
28
Assists
24
11
Turnovers
14
Season series
OKC wins series 4-0
GS102@OKC126OKC124@GS112OKC131@GS94GS97@OKC104todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -11.5
Between 10 and —
Total
219.5
Standard · -6.5 vs avg
Moneyline
GS+45518%OKC-62586%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
11.5
0.0 since open
Total
219.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
OKC beat GS 104-97. S. Gilgeous-Alexander paced them with 27 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. GS outscored the other side 29-19 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
OKC vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
68 PTS · 27 REB · 19 AST
GS 57
Bench(5)
29 PTS · 20 REB · 9 AST
GS 22
OKCstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
71 PTS · 28 REB · 16 AST
GS 52
Bench(4)
33 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST
GS 29
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIsaiah Joe · shooting foul
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 28 | 26 | 29 | 14 | 97 |
| OKC | 34 | 33 | 19 | 18 | 104 |
Period scoring
GS won 1 · OKC won 3
Q1
Santos 8
Joe 8
Q2
Porzingis 7
McCain 19
Q3
Podziemski 7
Gilgeous-Alexander 10
Q4
Green 5
Joe 5
Shooting comparison
41%
36-88
FG
42%
33-78
31%
14-45
3PT
36%
15-42
61%
11-18
FT
96%
23-24
Play-by-play · 477 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 97·OKC 104
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 97·OKC 104
- Q4·10.6
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
GS 97·OKC 104
- Q4·13.1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander blocks Gui Santos 's 2-foot reverse layup
·
GS 97·OKC 104
+1pp
- Q4·27.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 97·OKC 104
−0.8pp
- Q4·27.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 97·OKC 103
- Q4·27.0
Gui Santos personal foul
GS 97·OKC 102
+3pp
- Q4·35.7
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
GS 97·OKC 102
+1pp
- Q4·38.5
Kristaps Porzingis misses 9-foot fade away jump shot
GS 97·OKC 102
+3pp
- Q4·42.4
Kristaps Porzingis enters the game for Gary Payton II
·
GS 97·OKC 102
- Q4·42.4
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Joe
· ·
GS 97·OKC 102
- Q4·42.4
Warriors Full timeout
GS 97·OKC 102
- Q4·42.8
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
GS 97·OKC 102
+10pp
- Q4·1:02
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
GS 97·OKC 99
+2pp
- Q4·1:05
Brandin Podziemski misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
GS 97·OKC 99
+6pp
- Q4·1:13
Jaylin Williams lost ball turnover (Brandin Podziemski steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
GS 97·OKC 99
−7pp
- Q4·1:14
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
· ·
GS 97·OKC 99
+2pp
- Q4·1:17
Gui Santos misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
GS 97·OKC 99
+7pp
- Q4·1:36
Gui Santos defensive rebound
GS 97·OKC 99
−2pp
- Q4·1:38
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
GS 97·OKC 99
−14pp
- Q4·1:44
Gary Payton II personal foulBIG MOMENT
GS 97·OKC 99
+10pp
- Q4·2:00
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
· ·
GS 97·OKC 99
- Q4·2:02
Gui Santos misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
GS 97·OKC 99
+16pp
- Q4·2:02
Gary Payton II enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis
·
GS 97·OKC 99
- Q4·2:02
Isaiah Joe shooting foulBIG MOMENT
GS 97·OKC 99
−16pp
- Q4·2:02
Gui Santos makes running layup (Al Horford assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 97·OKC 99
−6pp
- Q4·2:05
Jaylin Williams bad pass turnover (Gui Santos steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
GS 95·OKC 99
−5pp
- Q4·2:07
Jaylin Williams offensive rebound
· ·
GS 95·OKC 99
+4pp
- Q4·2:09
Isaiah Joe misses 29-foot three point jumper
GS 95·OKC 99
−3pp
- Q4·2:26
Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
GS 95·OKC 99
+1pp
Betting line
OKC -11.5·O/U 219.5·GS +455/OKC -625
Recap · NBA
klahoma City Thunder held off Golden State Warriors, 104–97.
GS +11.5 cashed (OKC won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 219.5 by 18.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Cason WallaceOKC · GDEFL599+- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · GDRIVES18.399
Kristaps PorzingisGS · CCONT9.498
Draymond GreenGS · FCONT7.593
Isaiah JoeOKC · GTS%65.793
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
OKC vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
140
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Stephen CurryGS25.2± 8.3high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS20.4± 6.0high
Rebounds
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
- Kristaps PorzingisGS5.6± 2.4high
Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- Draymond GreenGS6.6± 3.0high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS4.8± 1.7high
Blocks
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Al HorfordGS1.1± 1.3high
- Charles BasseyGS0.9± 1.1medium
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- De'Anthony MeltonGS1.5± 1.4high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS1.5± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
GS
league avg
OKC
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.9%
46.2%
FG%
47.0
▶48.2%
114.5
PPG
114.9
▶118.5
28.8
Assists / G
25.0
25.8
15.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶11.9