NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14MIL

UTAH

19-45

99113

MIL

27-35

NBASat, Mar 7FinalSeriesMIL leads series 1-0VegasMIL -9.5

UTAH · top performer

Brice Sensabaugh

F · #28

15.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Giannis Antetokounmpo

F · #34

28.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowUTAH ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 27pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:44

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. FilipowskiF · #22	34	14	4-11	1-5	5-5	-11	11	6
C. WilliamsF · #5	37	13	4-12	1-5	4-4	-21	11	2
O. TshiebweC · #34	12	6	3-4	—	0-1	-9	5	1
K. GeorgeG · #3	29	22	4-17	2-8	12-13	-15	2	4
A. BaileyG · #19	29	9	4-13	1-9	—	-11	6	3
Bench
K. LoveF · #42	14	3	1-3	1-3	—	-8	6	0
B. HinsonF · #2	23	8	3-9	2-7	—	+3	2	3
B. SensabaughF · #28	19	17	6-12	3-6	2-2	+7	5	2
J. KoncharG · #55	26	2	0-2	0-2	2-4	-10	3	0
E. HarklessG · #16	16	5	2-7	1-4	—	+5	2	2
Team		99	31-90	12-49	25-29		53	23
DNP: M. Bamba, S. Mykhailiuk

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. AntetokounmpoF · #34	27	27	9-14	0-2	9-15	+23	9	8
K. KuzmaF · #18	29	18	6-12	3-5	3-3	+7	2	5
O. DiengF · #21	32	11	4-8	3-6	—	+18	8	9
M. TurnerC · #3	18	8	3-7	1-4	1-2	+10	3	0
R. RollinsG · #13	40	13	5-15	3-9	—	+11	11	8
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	18	12	5-8	0-2	2-2	-6	4	0
P. NanceF · #35	14	5	2-5	1-4	—	+11	4	0
J. SimsC · #00	30	6	3-4	—	0-2	-2	5	2
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	6	3	1-3	1-3	—	+6	1	0
A. GreenG · #20	21	7	2-8	2-8	1-2	0	1	1
C. ThomasG · #24	6	3	1-1	1-1	0-2	-8	0	0
Team		113	41-85	15-44	16-28		48	33
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, G. Harris, A. Jackson Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

31-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-85

FG %

12-49

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-44

25-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIL leads series 1-0

Mar 8

UTAH99@

MIL113today

Mar 20

MIL96@

UTAH128

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+34023%

MIL-44081%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -9.5↗SpreadBet MIL -9.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIL beat UTAH 113-99. G. Antetokounmpo paced them with 27 PTS, 9 REB, 8 AST. MIL outscored the other side 24-13 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 35 REB · 16 AST

GS 49

Bench(5)

35 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST

GS 26

MILstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 33 REB · 30 AST

GS 74

Bench(6)

36 PTS · 15 REB · 3 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

UTAH3rd Quarter · 4:44 · 68-67

+27pp→ 35% WP

Blake Hinson · enters the game for Keyonte George

UTAH4th Quarter · 7:00 · 88-91

+10pp→ 27% WP

Kyle Kuzma · enters the game for Bobby Portis

MIL4th Quarter · 3:54 · 97-103

+12pp→ 92% WP

Keyonte George · misses driving layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	13	31	32	23	99
MIL	24	27	32	30	113

Period scoring

UTAH won 1 · MIL won 2

George 5

Antetokounmpo 9

George 8

Dieng 5

George 9

Antetokounmpo 34

Sensabaugh 10

Sensabaugh 22

UTAH

MIL

Shooting comparison

UTAH

MIL

34%

31-90

48%

41-85

24%

12-49

3PT

34%

15-44

86%

25-29

57%

16-28

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 99·MIL 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 99·MIL 113
Q4·20.9
Kyle Kuzma makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)
·
UTAH 99·MIL 113
Q4·32.4
Jericho Sims defensive rebound
UTAH 99·MIL 110
Q4·36.2
Kyle Filipowski misses 23-foot three point jumper
UTAH 99·MIL 110
Q4·47.0
Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ousmane Dieng assists)
·
UTAH 99·MIL 110
+0.8pp
Q4·1:06
Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
UTAH 99·MIL 107
Q4·1:10
Kyle Filipowski misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
UTAH 99·MIL 107
+1pp
Q4·1:15
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
UTAH 99·MIL 107
Q4·1:18
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
UTAH 99·MIL 107
−0.6pp
Q4·1:41
Bucks defensive team rebound
UTAH 99·MIL 107
Q4·1:41
Keyonte George misses 27-foot three point jumper
UTAH 99·MIL 107
+1pp
Q4·1:53
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2
·
UTAH 99·MIL 107
−1pp
Q4·1:53
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2
·
UTAH 99·MIL 106
Q4·1:53
Oscar Tshiebwe enters the game for Ace Bailey
·
UTAH 99·MIL 105
Q4·1:53
Jazz Full timeout
UTAH 99·MIL 105
Q4·1:53
Ace Bailey shooting foul
UTAH 99·MIL 105
+3pp
Q4·2:06
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
·
UTAH 99·MIL 105
+0.8pp
Q4·2:08
Keyonte George misses two point shot
UTAH 99·MIL 105
+2pp
Q4·2:12
Cody Williams defensive rebound
UTAH 99·MIL 105
−0.6pp
Q4·2:18
Jericho Sims misses 8-foot floating jump shot
UTAH 99·MIL 105
−2pp
Q4·2:44
Cody Williams makes dunk (Kyle Filipowski assists)
·
UTAH 99·MIL 105
−2pp
Q4·2:51
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
UTAH 97·MIL 105
Q4·2:55
Ousmane Dieng misses 15-foot step back jumpshot
UTAH 97·MIL 105
−1pp
Q4·3:08
Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
UTAH 97·MIL 105
+0.5pp
Q4·3:12
Ace Bailey misses 26-foot three point jumper
UTAH 97·MIL 105
+2pp
Q4·3:32
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2
·
UTAH 97·MIL 105
−1pp
Q4·3:32
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2
·
UTAH 97·MIL 104
+2pp
Q4·3:32
Ace Bailey shooting foul
UTAH 97·MIL 103
+2pp
Q4·3:32
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
UTAH 97·MIL 103
+0.9pp

Betting line

MIL -9.5·O/U 230.5·UTAH +340/MIL -440

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ilwaukee Bucks held off Utah Jazz, 113–99.

MIL -9.5 cashed (won by 14). Total stayed UNDER 230.5 by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · F
USG%36.699+
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Blake HinsonUTAH · F
TS%68.497
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · G
TOUCHES78.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · UTAH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs UTAH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
20.7± 4.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Walker KesslerUTAH
10.7± 2.2low
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH
8.1± 2.6high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium

Blocks

Walker KesslerUTAH
1.8± 2.5low
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high
Ace BaileyUTAH
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

MIL

53.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

117.6

PPG

◀

114.9

110.6

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR