ORL
34-28
MIN
40-24
ORL · top performer
Desmond Bane
G · #3
30
Pts
3
Reb
4
Ast
MIN · top performer
Anthony Edwards
G · #5
34
Pts
3
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:58
NBA · Orlando Magic at Minnesota Timberwolves · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 25 | 10-18 | 1-5 | 4-4 | +15 | 15 | 3 | |
| 25 | 10 | 4-5 | — | 2-2 | +16 | 6 | 3 | |
| 33 | 30 | 10-17 | 0-5 | 10-10 | +13 | 3 | 4 | |
| 29 | 14 | 5-13 | 3-8 | 1-1 | +13 | 4 | 4 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | 0-2 | +2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 19 | 7 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 5-6 | +6 | 7 | 3 | |
| 4 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-1 | — | +5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 31 | 11 | 5-11 | 1-4 | — | +24 | 7 | 4 | |
| 14 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | +8 | 6 | 1 | |
| 4 | 4 | 1-2 | — | 2-2 | +5 | 4 | 1 | |
| 19 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-2 | +14 | 2 | 4 | |
| 25 | 9 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | +14 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 119 | 42-91 | 9-34 | 26-31 | 58 | 28 | ||
| DNP: J. Richardson | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 14 | 6-14 | 1-4 | 1-2 | -12 | 9 | 1 | |
| 29 | 3 | 0-9 | 0-4 | 3-4 | -23 | 4 | 2 | |
| 33 | 12 | 6-6 | — | 0-3 | -13 | 8 | 0 | |
| 29 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-6 | — | -13 | 2 | 4 | |
| 32 | 34 | 8-18 | 5-9 | 13-14 | -3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 5 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 13 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 2-4 | -12 | 8 | 1 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-4 | — | -18 | 2 | 2 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -8 | 0 | 1 | |
| 23 | 9 | 3-10 | 1-6 | 2-2 | -12 | 1 | 4 | |
| Team | 92 | 30-84 | 9-40 | 23-31 | 37 | 17 | ||
| DNP: J. Ingles, M. Conley | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
36
28
Ast
17
Team stats
ORL
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
42-91
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-84
46
FG %
36
9-34
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-40
26-31
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-31
28
Assists
17
14
Turnovers
12
Season series
ORL leads series 1-0
ORL119@MIN92todayMIN120@ORL132Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -6.5
Half-pt below key 7
Total
224.5
Standard · -1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
ORL+21532%MIN-26573%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
6.5
0.0 since open
Total
224.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
ORL beat MIN 119-92. D. Bane paced them with 30 PTS, 3 REB, 4 AST. ORL outscored the other side 29-14 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs ORL
Starters vs bench
production by unitORLstarters 66% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 29 REB · 14 AST
GS 65
Bench(7)
40 PTS · 29 REB · 14 AST
GS 35
MINstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
63 PTS · 26 REB · 9 AST
GS 45
Bench(7)
29 PTS · 11 REB · 8 AST
GS 16
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDesmond Bane · makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2
Jalen Suggs · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)
Anthony Edwards · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jaden McDaniels assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 27 | 33 | 30 | 29 | 119 |
| MIN | 30 | 20 | 28 | 14 | 92 |
Period scoring
ORL won 3 · MIN won 1
Q1
Banchero 9
Edwards 17
Q2
Bane 8
Hyland 7
Q3
Bane 6
Edwards 14
Q4
Bane 10
Wagner 4
Shooting comparison
46%
42-91
FG
36%
30-84
26%
9-34
3PT
23%
9-40
84%
26-31
FT
74%
23-31
Play-by-play · 506 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 119·MIN 92
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 119·MIN 92
- Q4·15.5
Goga Bitadze makes driving layup (Jamal Cain assists)
·
ORL 119·MIN 92
- Q4·35.3
Noah Penda defensive rebound
ORL 117·MIN 92
- Q4·37.5
Julian Phillips misses 9-foot fade away jump shot
ORL 117·MIN 92
- Q4·52.6
Jevon Carter out of bounds bad pass turnover
ORL 117·MIN 92
- Q4·1:06
Magic defensive team rebound
ORL 117·MIN 92
- Q4·1:08
Julian Phillips misses 23-foot three point jumper
ORL 117·MIN 92
- Q4·1:21
Jett Howard makes 4-foot two point shot (Jevon Carter assists)
·
ORL 117·MIN 92
- Q4·1:23
Magic offensive team rebound
ORL 115·MIN 92
- Q4·1:24
Jett Howard misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
ORL 115·MIN 92
- Q4·1:37
Rocco Zikarsky makes layup (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)
·
ORL 115·MIN 92
- Q4·1:54
Goga Bitadze makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 115·MIN 90
- Q4·1:54
Goga Bitadze makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 114·MIN 90
- Q4·1:54
Rocco Zikarsky shooting foul
ORL 113·MIN 90
- Q4·2:03
Goga Bitadze offensive rebound
ORL 113·MIN 90
- Q4·2:04
Goga Bitadze misses tip shot
ORL 113·MIN 90
- Q4·2:04
Goga Bitadze offensive rebound
ORL 113·MIN 90
- Q4·2:08
Jett Howard misses driving floating jump shot
ORL 113·MIN 90
- Q4·2:20
Julian Phillips makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 113·MIN 90
- Q4·2:20
Julian Phillips makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 113·MIN 89
- Q4·2:20
Jamal Cain shooting foul
ORL 113·MIN 88
- Q4·2:32
Jamal Cain makes 23-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)
·
ORL 113·MIN 88
- Q4·2:33
Goga Bitadze offensive rebound
ORL 110·MIN 88
- Q4·2:35
Jett Howard misses two point shot
ORL 110·MIN 88
- Q4·2:36
Jett Howard offensive rebound
ORL 110·MIN 88
- Q4·2:39
Julian Phillips blocks Jett Howard 's 8-foot driving floating jump shot
·
ORL 110·MIN 88
- Q4·2:44
Noah Penda offensive rebound
ORL 110·MIN 88
- Q4·2:46
Jevon Carter misses 24-foot three point jumper
ORL 110·MIN 88
- Q4·3:01
Bones Hyland out of bounds bad pass turnover
ORL 110·MIN 88
Betting line
MIN -6.5·O/U 224.5·ORL +215/MIN -265
Recap · NBA
rlando Magic went into Minnesota Timberwolves and beat them, 119–92. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ORL +6.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 224.5 by 13.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 players in cohort
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+
Paolo BancheroORL · FDRIVES18.699
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · CCONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · GDEFL3.797
Anthony BlackORL · GDEFL3.797
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · ORL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs ORL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Paolo BancheroORL23.9± 9.4high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- LaMelo BallMIN22.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Paolo BancheroORL8.3± 2.3high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL7.4± 4.7high
Assists
- LaMelo BallMIN7.3± 2.5high
- Paolo BancheroORL6.0± 2.3high
- Jalen SuggsORL4.6± 1.5high
Blocks
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Goga BitadzeORL1.4± 1.2high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL1.3± 0.7high
Steals
- Jalen SuggsORL1.8± 1.5high
- Anthony BlackORL1.5± 1.8high
- Desmond BaneORL1.5± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
ORL
league avg
MIN
52.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.1%
45.9%
FG%
47.0
▶47.6%
114.2
PPG
114.9
▶116.8
26.0
Assists / G
25.0
25.7
13.7
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.0