NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11LAL

IND

15-48

117128

LAL

38-25

NBAFri, Mar 6FinalSeriesLAL lead series 1-0VegasLAL -9.5

IND · top performer

Pascal Siakam

F · #43

18.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

38.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 7:48

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	29	26	10-20	0-3	6-9	-8	5	3
J. WalkerF · #5	27	10	4-9	1-3	1-2	+9	9	5
J. HuffC · #32	33	16	6-13	2-6	2-2	+2	6	2
A. NembhardG · #2	31	17	7-14	1-6	2-2	-14	2	8
A. NesmithG · #23	23	7	3-10	1-6	—	-4	3	1
Bench
O. ToppinF · #1	11	2	1-4	0-1	—	-12	4	1
M. PotterC · #11	14	8	2-3	1-2	3-4	+5	6	3
T.J. McConnellG · #9	18	10	5-10	—	—	-9	1	4
K. BrownG · #24	10	8	3-3	1-1	1-2	-4	1	0
B. SheppardG · #26	26	5	2-6	1-5	0-1	-8	2	4
Q. JacksonG · #29	18	8	3-6	0-2	2-2	-12	1	2
Team		117	46-98	8-35	17-24		40	33
DNP: K. Jones

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. HachimuraF · #28	23	13	5-8	2-3	1-1	+6	3	1
J. HayesC · #11	25	9	3-6	—	3-3	+2	4	2
M. SmartG · #36	29	11	4-6	3-4	—	+8	3	3
L. DoncicG · #77	32	44	14-25	7-14	9-10	+20	9	5
A. ReavesG · #15	29	19	6-14	1-4	6-7	-12	2	5
Bench
J. VanderbiltF · #2	21	2	1-4	0-1	—	+12	8	3
D. TimmeF · #17	23	4	2-2	—	—	+9	2	1
J. LaRaviaF · #12	16	8	3-7	0-2	2-2	+13	2	0
D. KnechtF · #4	4	3	1-1	1-1	—	-7	1	1
L. KennardG · #10	27	15	6-9	3-5	—	+26	7	3
K. BufkinG · #18	4	0	0-2	0-2	—	-7	0	1
B. JamesG · #9	5	0	—	—	—	-8	0	0
C. ManonG · #30	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-7	2	0
Team		128	45-85	17-37	21-23		43	25
DNP: A. Thiero

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

46-98

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-85

FG %

8-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-37

17-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL lead series 1-0

Mar 7

IND117@

LAL128today

Mar 25

LAL137@

IND130

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+32024%

LAL-41080%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -9.5↗SpreadBet LAL -9.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat IND 128-117. L. Doncic led the way with 44 points and 9 rebounds. LAL outscored the other side 35-27 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 25 REB · 19 AST

GS 61

Bench(6)

41 PTS · 15 REB · 14 AST

GS 41

LALstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 21 REB · 16 AST

GS 78

Bench(8)

32 PTS · 22 REB · 9 AST

GS 27

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	27	24	29	37	117
LAL	35	29	35	29	128

Period scoring

IND won 1 · LAL won 3

Huff 7

Doncic 22

Jackson 6

Hayes 7

Siakam 13

Doncic 15

Walker 7

Reaves 11

IND

LAL

Shooting comparison

IND

LAL

47%

46-98

53%

45-85

23%

8-35

3PT

46%

17-37

71%

17-24

91%

21-23

Play-by-play · 478 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 117·LAL 128
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 117·LAL 128
Q4·17.9
Jarace Walker makes 1-foot running dunk
IND 117·LAL 128
Q4·20.3
Dalton Knecht lost ball turnover (Jarace Walker steals)
·
IND 115·LAL 128
Q4·36.1
Chris Manon defensive rebound
IND 115·LAL 128
Q4·38.7
Ben Sheppard misses free throw 1 of 1
IND 115·LAL 128
Q4·38.7
Drew Timme shooting foul
IND 115·LAL 128
Q4·38.7
Ben Sheppard makes driving layup (Micah Potter assists)
·
IND 115·LAL 128
Q4·41.2
Micah Potter offensive rebound
IND 113·LAL 128
Q4·45.4
Jay Huff misses 27-foot running jump shot
IND 113·LAL 128
Q4·49.1
Jarace Walker defensive rebound
IND 113·LAL 128
Q4·52.6
Kobe Bufkin misses 23-foot three point jumper
IND 113·LAL 128
Q4·1:07
Jay Huff makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 113·LAL 128
Q4·1:07
Jay Huff makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 112·LAL 128
Q4·1:07
Kobe Bufkin personal foul
IND 111·LAL 128
Q4·1:10
Jarace Walker defensive rebound
IND 111·LAL 128
Q4·1:13
Kobe Bufkin misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 111·LAL 128
Q4·1:31
Chris Manon defensive rebound
IND 111·LAL 128
Q4·1:31
Jay Huff misses 9-foot turnaround jump shot
IND 111·LAL 128
Q4·1:46
Drew Timme makes 2-foot layup (Dalton Knecht assists)
·
IND 111·LAL 128
Q4·2:01
Kobe Brown makes driving dunk (Ben Sheppard assists)
·
IND 111·LAL 126
Q4·2:14
Dalton Knecht makes 25-foot three pointer (Kobe Bufkin assists)
·
IND 109·LAL 126
Q4·2:28
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
IND 109·LAL 123
Q4·2:31
Micah Potter misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 109·LAL 123
Q4·2:31
Micah Potter makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 109·LAL 123
Q4·2:31
Chris Manon shooting foul
IND 108·LAL 123
Q4·2:31
Micah Potter offensive rebound
IND 108·LAL 123
Q4·2:34
Kobe Brown misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 108·LAL 123
Q4·2:34
Kobe Brown makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 108·LAL 123
Q4·2:34
Kobe Bufkin loose ball foul
IND 107·LAL 123

Betting line

LAL -9.5·O/U 235.5·IND +320/LAL -410

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Indiana Pacers, 128–117.

LAL -9.5 cashed (won by 11). Total cleared the 235.5 OVER by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Jaxson HayesLAL · C
TS%75.899+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Austin ReavesLAL · G
TOUCHES81.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

LAL

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

112.4

PPG

114.9

▶

114.8

27.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR