NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7HOU

POR

30-34

99106

HOU

39-23

NBAFri, Mar 6FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasHOU -6.5

POR · top performer

Toumani Camara

F · #33

16.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Amen Thompson

G · #1

29.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 5:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. GrantF · #9	38	21	6-14	2-5	7-9	-1	2	2
T. CamaraF · #33	39	16	5-13	4-9	2-4	+4	6	2
D. ClinganC · #23	25	18	5-10	1-4	7-11	-14	13	0
J. HolidayG · #5	37	20	8-18	2-7	2-4	+13	4	10
S. HendersonG · #00	20	4	1-9	1-4	1-2	-11	2	2
Bench
R. Williams IIIC · #35	23	8	4-5	0-1	0-4	+7	8	0
M. ThybulleG · #4	12	5	2-4	1-2	—	-7	1	1
V. KrejciG · #27	20	0	0-5	0-5	—	+2	6	2
B. WesleyG · #1	13	7	2-3	1-1	2-3	-12	0	1
S. CissokoG · #91	12	0	0-2	0-1	—	-16	1	0
Team		99	33-83	12-39	21-37		43	20
DNP: K. Murray, D. Avdija, D. Lillard, C. Youngblood, S. Sharpe

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	39	20	8-18	0-1	4-4	+2	8	5
T. EasonF · #17	25	5	2-6	0-4	1-1	0	5	0
A. SengunC · #28	26	28	11-15	1-1	5-8	+5	6	2
A. ThompsonG · #1	39	26	11-12	—	4-6	+12	7	7
R. SheppardG · #15	36	17	5-14	3-8	4-4	+7	3	6
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	25	5	2-4	1-3	—	-3	5	2
C. CapelaC · #30	22	2	1-2	—	0-2	+2	6	0
A. HolidayG · #0	12	3	1-5	0-2	1-1	+2	3	0
J. OkogieG · #20	15	0	—	—	—	+8	1	1
Team		106	41-76	5-19	19-26		44	23
DNP: J. Green, J. Smith Jr., I. Crawford

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

33-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-76

FG %

12-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-19

21-37

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Nov 15

POR116@

HOU140

Jan 8

HOU102@

POR103

Jan 10

HOU105@

POR111

Mar 7

POR99@

HOU106today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR+21532%

HOU-26573%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -6.5↗SpreadBet HOU -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat POR 106-99. A. Thompson paced them with 26 PTS, 7 REB, 7 AST. HOU outscored the other side 29-17 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

20 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST

GS 17

HOUstarters 91% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST

GS 72

Bench(4)

10 PTS · 15 REB · 3 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

HOU3rd Quarter · 6:57 · 69-72

+14pp→ 76% WP

Jrue Holiday · misses driving floating jump shot

HOU4th Quarter · 7:58 · 89-87

+12pp→ 59% WP

Donovan Clingan · shooting foul

POR4th Quarter · 5:00 · 89-93

+19pp→ 19% WP

Amen Thompson · enters the game for Tari Eason

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	34	22	26	17	99
HOU	27	30	20	29	106

Period scoring

POR won 2 · HOU won 2

Camara 14

Thompson 6

Clingan 10

Sengun 15

Holiday 11

Sengun 11

Thybulle 5

Sheppard 9

POR

HOU

Shooting comparison

POR

HOU

40%

33-83

54%

41-76

31%

12-39

3PT

26%

5-19

57%

21-37

73%

19-26

Play-by-play · 499 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 99·HOU 106
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 99·HOU 106
Q4·1.2
Reed Sheppard makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 99·HOU 106
Q4·1.2
Reed Sheppard makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 99·HOU 105
Q4·1.2
Jerami Grant personal take foul
POR 99·HOU 104
+0.8pp
Q4·9.5
Jrue Holiday makes 7-foot two point shot
·
POR 99·HOU 104
Q4·15.6
Kevin Durant makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Amen Thompson assists)
·
POR 97·HOU 104
+3pp
Q4·40.2
Jerami Grant bad pass turnover (Amen Thompson steals)
·
POR 97·HOU 102
+4pp
Q4·43.8
Amen Thompson lost ball turnover (Jerami Grant steals)
·
POR 97·HOU 102
−4pp
Q4·53.4
Matisse Thybulle makes 5-foot two point shot
POR 97·HOU 102
−2pp
Q4·1:10
Kevin Durant bad pass turnover (Matisse Thybulle steals)
·
POR 95·HOU 102
−1pp
Q4·1:30
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
POR 95·HOU 102
+0.5pp
Q4·1:32
Jrue Holiday misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
POR 95·HOU 102
+2pp
Q4·1:43
Matisse Thybulle defensive rebound
POR 95·HOU 102
Q4·1:44
Tari Eason misses 23-foot three point jumper
POR 95·HOU 102
−1pp
Q4·2:00
Robert Williams III makes 9-foot two point shot
POR 95·HOU 102
−0.9pp
Q4·2:03
Robert Williams III offensive rebound
POR 93·HOU 102
−0.5pp
Q4·2:04
Matisse Thybulle misses 22-foot running jump shot
POR 93·HOU 102
+0.6pp
Q4·2:10
Kevin Durant bad pass turnover (Robert Williams III steals)
·
POR 93·HOU 102
−0.5pp
Q4·2:37
Toumani Camara makes 5-foot layup (Jrue Holiday assists)
· ·
POR 93·HOU 102
Q4·2:53
Amen Thompson makes 2-foot dunk (Kevin Durant assists)
·
POR 91·HOU 102
+0.6pp
Q4·3:05
Jrue Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2
·
POR 91·HOU 100
+0.8pp
Q4·3:05
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
POR 90·HOU 100
Q4·3:05
Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2
·
POR 90·HOU 100
Q4·3:05
Josh Okogie shooting foul
POR 89·HOU 100
−1pp
Q4·3:16
Josh Okogie enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
POR 89·HOU 100
Q4·3:16
Rockets Full timeout
POR 89·HOU 100
Q4·3:16
Kevin Durant offensive foul turnover
POR 89·HOU 100
Q4·3:16
Kevin Durant offensive foul
POR 89·HOU 100
Q4·3:28
Tari Eason defensive rebound
POR 89·HOU 100

Betting line

HOU -6.5·O/U 220.5·POR +215/HOU -265

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets held off Portland Trail Blazers, 106–99.

HOU -6.5 cashed (won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 220.5 by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high

Assists

Ja MorantPOR
8.1± 3.9high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high

Blocks

Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
1.1± 0.9high

Steals

Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high
Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

POR

league avg

HOU

53.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.7%

45.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.4%

114.6

PPG

114.9

114.1

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

25.1

16.2

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR