NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8MIA

MIA

35-29

128120

CHA

32-32

NBAFri, Mar 6FinalSeriesMIA leads series 3-0VegasCHA -7.5

MIA · top performer

Tyler Herro

G · #14

32.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Brandon Miller

F · #24

23.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIA ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 41pp · 4th Quarter · 5:36

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. GardnerF · #15	16	6	2-4	1-2	1-2	+9	5	2
B. AdebayoC · #13	39	24	10-26	0-5	4-5	+9	12	4
D. MitchellG · #45	27	13	5-9	3-4	—	+8	2	7
T. HerroG · #14	37	33	11-20	8-10	3-3	+19	9	9
P. LarssonG · #9	29	11	3-8	0-1	5-5	+3	4	2
Bench
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	31	21	8-13	4-6	1-2	-1	2	4
K. WareC · #7	31	10	4-8	1-5	1-2	+1	4	0
D. SmithG · #12	18	4	1-5	0-1	2-2	+2	4	1
K. JakucionisG · #25	13	6	1-4	1-4	3-4	-10	2	2
Team		128	45-97	18-38	20-25		44	31
DNP: A. Wiggins, S. Fontecchio, N. Jovic, V. Goldin, N. Powell, T. Keels

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	28	12	5-13	0-3	2-2	-4	2	1
M. DiabateF · #14	31	6	3-6	—	—	-1	14	1
B. MillerF · #24	34	22	7-12	3-5	5-5	-1	13	5
L. BallG · #1	33	21	7-22	5-15	2-2	-15	2	5
K. KnueppelG · #7	34	27	9-14	6-10	3-3	-15	2	4
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	19	12	4-8	3-7	1-1	+3	6	4
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	17	2	0-3	—	2-2	-5	3	0
C. WhiteG · #3	17	13	4-11	1-6	4-5	+8	5	3
J. GreenG · #10	14	2	1-3	0-2	—	-7	1	1
S. JamesG · #4	14	3	1-4	1-4	—	-3	0	0
Team		120	41-96	19-52	19-20		48	24
DNP: X. Tillman, P. Connaughton, T. Mann

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

45-97

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-96

FG %

18-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

19-52

20-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA leads series 3-0

Oct 28

CHA117@

MIA144

Nov 8

CHA108@

MIA126

Mar 7

MIA128@

CHA120today

Mar 17

MIA106@

CHA136

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIA+24029%

CHA-29875%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -7.5↗SpreadBet CHA -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat CHA 128-120. T. Herro paced them with 33 PTS, 9 REB, 9 AST. MIA outscored the other side 30-19 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs MIA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MIAstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 32 REB · 24 AST

GS 77

Bench(4)

41 PTS · 12 REB · 7 AST

GS 37

CHAstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 33 REB · 16 AST

GS 72

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA4th Quarter · 10:03 · 102-104

+15pp→ 69% WP

Ryan Kalkbrenner · blocks Bam Adebayo 's 6-foot dunk

MIA4th Quarter · 5:36 · 115-108

+41pp→ 89% WP

Kon Knueppel · lost ball turnover (Dru Smith steals)

MIA4th Quarter · 32.7 · 124-120

+21pp→ 87% WP

Kon Knueppel · misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	30	28	40	30	128
CHA	27	34	40	19	120

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · CHA won 1

Herro 7

Miller 11

Adebayo 7

Miller 8

Herro 12

Knueppel 10

Adebayo 12

Knueppel 9

MIA

CHA

Shooting comparison

MIA

CHA

46%

45-97

43%

41-96

47%

18-38

3PT

37%

19-52

80%

20-25

95%

19-20

Play-by-play · 489 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 128·CHA 120
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 128·CHA 120
Q4·0.0
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
MIA 128·CHA 120
Q4·0.0
LaMelo Ball misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
MIA 128·CHA 120
Q4·7.0
Dru Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 128·CHA 120
Q4·7.0
Dru Smith makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 127·CHA 120
Q4·7.0
Sion James personal take foul
MIA 126·CHA 120
Q4·7.0
Dru Smith defensive rebound
MIA 126·CHA 120
Q4·9.3
Kon Knueppel misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIA 126·CHA 120
−1pp
Q4·11.9
Hornets offensive team rebound
MIA 126·CHA 120
+0.6pp
Q4·15.1
Sion James misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIA 126·CHA 120
−2pp
Q4·18.5
Brandon Miller enters the game for Ryan Kalkbrenner
·
MIA 126·CHA 120
Q4·18.5
LaMelo Ball enters the game for Moussa Diabate
·
MIA 126·CHA 120
Q4·18.5
Hornets Full timeout
MIA 126·CHA 120
Q4·18.5
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 126·CHA 120
+1pp
Q4·18.5
Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Brandon Miller
·
MIA 125·CHA 120
Q4·18.5
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 125·CHA 120
−0.5pp
Q4·18.5
Grant Williams personal take foul
MIA 124·CHA 120
−4pp
Q4·19.5
Sion James enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
MIA 124·CHA 120
Q4·19.5
Heat Full timeout
MIA 124·CHA 120
+4pp
Q4·19.5
Brandon Miller personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIA 124·CHA 120
−7pp
Q4·25.8
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
MIA 124·CHA 120
−3pp
Q4·28.7
LaMelo Ball misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIA 124·CHA 120
−6pp
Q4·30.6
Grant Williams offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIA 124·CHA 120
+5pp
Q4·32.7
Kon Knueppel misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIA 124·CHA 120
−22pp
Q4·36.9
LaMelo Ball enters the game for Sion James
·
MIA 124·CHA 120
Q4·36.9
Bam Adebayo personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIA 124·CHA 120
+19pp
Q4·37.3
Moussa Diabate defensive rebound
MIA 124·CHA 120
+2pp
Q4·39.1
Bam Adebayo misses driving floating jump shot
MIA 124·CHA 120
+5pp
Q4·45.2
Sion James enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
MIA 124·CHA 120

Betting line

CHA -7.5·O/U 229.5·MIA +240/CHA -298

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat went into Charlotte Hornets and beat them, 128–120.

MIA +7.5 cashed (CHA lost outright). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Coby WhiteCHA · G
USG%29.195
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIA

league avg

CHA

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

46.8%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

120.9

PPG

◀

114.9

115.8

29.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.2

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR